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ORBIA:BMVOrbia Advance Corp. SAB de CV Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time

MX$18.58

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Orbia is trading at MXN 18.58, below its 20‑day SMA of 19.65 and 50‑day SMA of 18.91, while hovering just above the identified support level of 17.65. The RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum, but the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, suggesting short‑term downside pressure. On the fundamentals side, the company carries a hefty debt‑to‑equity ratio of 215% and posted a negative profit margin of -6%, yet its forward EPS of 1.50 points to a potential earnings turnaround. The stock’s price‑to‑book of 0.93 and forward P/E of 12.4 are well below the industry average P/E of 29.3, signaling relative undervaluation. A dividend yield of 9.8% is attractive, but the payout ratio is effectively zero because earnings are currently negative, raising sustainability concerns. Recent material news highlighted a full‑year 2025 EBITDA of $1.02 bn, continued expansion of the Netafim precision‑agriculture business, and recognition in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook, underscoring both growth potential and a strategic focus on ESG.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and price below short‑term moving averages
  • High leverage and negative current earnings
  • Dividend yield appears unsustainable

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward EPS positivity and earnings upside potential
  • Significant undervaluation relative to book and industry multiples
  • Growth drivers in precision agriculture and ESG positioning

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified conglomerate structure mitigates single‑segment risk
  • Persistent high debt load may limit financial flexibility
  • Sustainability initiatives could support stable cash flows over time

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth5.30%
Profit Margin-6.00%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE-12.10%
ROA1.85%
Debt/Equity215.80
P/B Ratio0.9
Op. Cash FlowMX$840.0M
Free Cash FlowMX$188.1M
Industry P/E29.3

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI44.1
SupportMX$17.65
ResistanceMX$21.64
MA 20MX$19.65
MA 50MX$18.91
MA 200MX$16.02
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.93

Valuation

Target PriceMX$28.27
Upside/Downside52.17%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield9.79%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.35
Volatility44.56%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.