HMN:NYSEHorace Mann Educators Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time
$42.55
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Horace Mann Educators (HMN) trades at a clear valuation discount – its price‑earnings multiple sits comfortably below the industry average, and a discounted cash‑flow model points to roughly a mid‑teens upside. Revenue grew around six percent year‑over‑year and the company posted record core earnings for 2025, underscoring solid operational momentum. Meanwhile, the board raised the quarterly dividend by 3%, delivering a dividend yield north of three percent with a modest payout ratio, suggesting sustainable shareholder returns.
On the technical side, the stock is under bearish pressure – it trades below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, the MACD is in a bearish configuration and price sits near a identified support level. However, low beta, increasing volume and a relatively defensive insurance franchise temper the downside risk, making HMN a candidate for a patient buy‑on‑dip strategy.
On the technical side, the stock is under bearish pressure – it trades below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, the MACD is in a bearish configuration and price sits near a identified support level. However, low beta, increasing volume and a relatively defensive insurance franchise temper the downside risk, making HMN a candidate for a patient buy‑on‑dip strategy.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical indicators (price below key moving averages, MACD negative)
- Proximity to near‑term support level limiting further downside
- Attractive dividend yield providing income cushion
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
- Consistent earnings growth and record core earnings
- Sustainable dividend with room for incremental increases
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Stable, diversified insurance business with low beta exposure
- DCF‑derived upside indicating long‑run price appreciation
- Strong cash flow generation supporting dividend continuity
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.30%
Profit Margin9.53%
P/E Ratio10.9
ROE11.70%
ROA1.00%
Debt/Equity110.13
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$553.2M
Free Cash Flow$197.1M
Industry P/E16.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.8
Support$41.57
Resistance$44.85
MA 20$43.03
MA 50$43.42
MA 200$44.12
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.86
Valuation
Fair Value$51.88
Target Price$49.33
Upside/Downside15.96%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.40%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.33
Volatility24.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.