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HMN:NYSEHorace Mann Educators Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time

$42.55

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Horace Mann Educators (HMN) trades at a clear valuation discount – its price‑earnings multiple sits comfortably below the industry average, and a discounted cash‑flow model points to roughly a mid‑teens upside. Revenue grew around six percent year‑over‑year and the company posted record core earnings for 2025, underscoring solid operational momentum. Meanwhile, the board raised the quarterly dividend by 3%, delivering a dividend yield north of three percent with a modest payout ratio, suggesting sustainable shareholder returns.
On the technical side, the stock is under bearish pressure – it trades below its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, the MACD is in a bearish configuration and price sits near a identified support level. However, low beta, increasing volume and a relatively defensive insurance franchise temper the downside risk, making HMN a candidate for a patient buy‑on‑dip strategy.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish technical indicators (price below key moving averages, MACD negative)
  • Proximity to near‑term support level limiting further downside
  • Attractive dividend yield providing income cushion

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued valuation metrics relative to peers
  • Consistent earnings growth and record core earnings
  • Sustainable dividend with room for incremental increases

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable, diversified insurance business with low beta exposure
  • DCF‑derived upside indicating long‑run price appreciation
  • Strong cash flow generation supporting dividend continuity

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.30%
Profit Margin9.53%
P/E Ratio10.9
ROE11.70%
ROA1.00%
Debt/Equity110.13
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$553.2M
Free Cash Flow$197.1M
Industry P/E16.5

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI44.8
Support$41.57
Resistance$44.85
MA 20$43.03
MA 50$43.42
MA 200$44.12
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index78.86

Valuation

Fair Value$51.88
Target Price$49.33
Upside/Downside15.96%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.40%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.33
Volatility24.59%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.