6178:TSEJAPAN POST HOLDINGS Co., Ltd. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-24 - not real-time
¥2,336.00
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. is bullish at ¥2,336.00, with short-term averages leading the long-term ones. Over a rolling month the price has lost 1.4%. With RSI at 47.4 the momentum picture is neutral, alongside a bearish MACD signal. Watch ¥2,267.50 as support and ¥2,539.50 as the nearer resistance level.
Multiples put this in undervalued territory: 18.1 times earnings against the sector's 16.8. Consensus targets land 5.9% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 6.4% on a 3.8% profit margin. The 2.57% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 4 out of 10, which is moderate for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 28.1%, a beta of 0.51 and a maximum drawdown of 16.0%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on buy — conviction 5 out of 10.
Multiples put this in undervalued territory: 18.1 times earnings against the sector's 16.8. Consensus targets land 5.9% above where the shares trade now. Revenue is growing at 6.4% on a 3.8% profit margin. The 2.57% dividend yield looks covered by current payout levels.
Risk scores 4 out of 10, which is moderate for this asset class. With 30-day volatility of 28.1%, a beta of 0.51 and a maximum drawdown of 16.0%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
The horizons line up on buy — conviction 5 out of 10.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- Trading above the 200-day average of 1929.20
- MACD momentum is negative
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- P/E of 18.1 versus sector average of 16.8
- Trading above the 200-day average of 1929.20
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- P/E of 18.1 versus sector average of 16.8
- Analyst targets imply +5.9% versus the current price
- Dividend yield of 2.57%
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.40%
Profit Margin3.77%
P/E Ratio18.1
ROE5.12%
ROA0.29%
P/B Ratio0.6
Industry P/E16.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI47.4
Support¥2,267.50
Resistance¥2,539.50
MA 20¥2,389.45
MA 50¥2,328.48
MA 200¥1,929.21
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.41
Valuation
Target Price¥2,473.75
Upside/Downside5.90%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.57%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.51
Volatility28.11%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.