YORW:NASDAQThe York Water Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-28 - not real-time
$29.93
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The York Water Company (YORW) is trading at $29.93, hovering just below its calculated resistance of $30.29 and above the 20‑day SMA of $29.40, while the 50‑day SMA sits higher at $30.12, indicating a short‑term price squeeze. Technical indicators are mixed: the MACD line sits above its signal (bullish) with a modest positive histogram, the RSI is neutral at 53, but the overall trend is flagged as bearish and volume is on a decreasing trajectory. Fundamentally, the stock appears overvalued against its DCF fair value of $9.42, yet its PE of 20.4 is slightly below the industry average of 21.9, suggesting a modest relative discount. Revenue grew 8.8% YoY with strong gross (72.7%) and operating margins (32.3%), but free cash flow is negative (-$28.9 M) and debt‑to‑equity is high at 98%, raising concerns about cash generation and leverage. The company recently reported a Q1 profit of $4.8 M and maintains a dividend yield of 3.05% with a payout ratio of 61%, though the sustainability of this payout is questionable given the cash flow profile.
Given the utility sector’s low beta and stable demand, sector risk remains low, but regulatory exposure and high leverage add medium‑level risks. The current market sentiment is extremely bullish (Fear & Greed Index 92), which may be inflating price expectations. Investors should weigh the attractive dividend against the overvaluation, cash flow constraints, and potential regulatory pressures when forming a position.
Given the utility sector’s low beta and stable demand, sector risk remains low, but regulatory exposure and high leverage add medium‑level risks. The current market sentiment is extremely bullish (Fear & Greed Index 92), which may be inflating price expectations. Investors should weigh the attractive dividend against the overvaluation, cash flow constraints, and potential regulatory pressures when forming a position.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance with bearish trend direction
- Decreasing volume indicating waning buying pressure
- MACD bullish crossover but overall technical mix is neutral
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Significant overvaluation versus DCF fair value
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio and negative free cash flow
- Dividend yield attractive but sustainability in doubt
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Persistent cash flow deficit and leverage concerns
- DCF valuation suggests a large upside potential if price corrects
- Regulatory and rate‑setting risk inherent to the water utility industry
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.80%
Profit Margin26.84%
P/E Ratio20.4
ROE8.95%
ROA2.66%
Debt/Equity98.15
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow$29.2M
Free Cash Flow$-28939000
Industry P/E21.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI53.5
Support$28.53
Resistance$30.29
MA 20$29.40
MA 50$30.12
MA 200$31.50
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.34
Valuation
Fair Value$9.42
Target Price$30.00
Upside/Downside0.23%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield3.05%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.12
Volatility16.47%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.