YORW:NASDAQThe York Water Company Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-13 - not real-time
$30.60
Latest Price
3/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
The York Water Company trades at $30.60, which is more than three times its DCF‑derived fair value of $9.28, flagging a significant overvaluation despite a solid dividend yield of 2.98% and a payout ratio of 60.8%. Revenue grew 8.8% year‑over‑year to $79.1 M, and margins remain robust (gross 72.7%, operating 32.3%, profit 26.8%), underscoring the business’s stable cash‑flow profile. However, free cash flow is negative at –$28.9 M, and the balance sheet carries $237.8 M of debt, yielding a high debt‑to‑equity of 98%, which pressures dividend sustainability. Technically, the stock sits just below the resistance level of $31.62, above support at $29.37, with a neutral trend, RSI at 54, and a bearish MACD histogram, suggesting limited upside in the near term.
Risk indicators are modest: beta is near zero (‑0.025), implying minimal market correlation, while 30‑day volatility sits at ~20%, and the liquidity profile is adequate with increasing volume and a market cap of $496 M. The utility sector’s low‑beta nature and the company’s regulated water franchise mitigate sector risk, though regulatory and geographic concentrations in Pennsylvania introduce medium‑level concerns. Given the mismatch between price and intrinsic value, investors should approach YORW cautiously, weighing its dividend appeal against valuation and cash‑flow constraints.
Risk indicators are modest: beta is near zero (‑0.025), implying minimal market correlation, while 30‑day volatility sits at ~20%, and the liquidity profile is adequate with increasing volume and a market cap of $496 M. The utility sector’s low‑beta nature and the company’s regulated water franchise mitigate sector risk, though regulatory and geographic concentrations in Pennsylvania introduce medium‑level concerns. Given the mismatch between price and intrinsic value, investors should approach YORW cautiously, weighing its dividend appeal against valuation and cash‑flow constraints.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price near resistance with bearish MACD
- Stable dividend yield but overvaluation
- Increasing volume supporting liquidity
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Strong operating margins and revenue growth
- High debt level and negative free cash flow
- Regulated utility demand providing earnings stability
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Current price far exceeds DCF fair value
- Sustaining dividend may be challenged by cash‑flow deficits
- Potential for price correction as market re‑prices valuation gap
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth8.80%
Profit Margin26.84%
P/E Ratio20.8
ROE8.95%
ROA2.66%
Debt/Equity98.15
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow$29.2M
Free Cash Flow$-28939000
Industry P/E21.0
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI54.0
Support$29.37
Resistance$31.62
MA 20$30.28
MA 50$29.85
MA 200$31.39
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.57
Valuation
Fair Value$9.28
Target Price$30.00
Upside/Downside-1.96%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.98%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.03
Volatility20.39%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.