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ZKH:NYSEZKH Group Limited Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-12 - not real-time

$3.02

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Technical outlook: ZKH trades at $3.02, sitting below its 20‑day (≈$3.04), 50‑day (≈$3.11) and 200‑day (≈$3.15) moving averages, confirming a bearish price trend. The RSI at 46.9 suggests neutral momentum, while the MACD line has just crossed above its signal, offering a faint bullish hint, and volume is on an increasing trajectory. Support is anchored near $2.91 with resistance at $3.24, and the 30‑day volatility of roughly 28% signals a fairly choppy price environment.
Fundamental outlook: The company posted $8.99 B in revenue with 7.9% YoY growth, yet margins remain thin (gross 16.4%, operating –1.1%) and earnings are currently negative (trailing EPS –$0.10). Forward EPS of $0.20 yields a forward P/E of about 15, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $13.09 implies a ~56% upside versus the current price. Cash of $1.86 B offsets a modest debt load of $0.43 B, but a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 14.5 raises financial risk. Recent filings of the FY2025 20‑F and the upcoming Q1 2026 results release provide fresh transparency for investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price below all major moving averages indicating short‑term downside pressure
  • Increasing volume and a marginal MACD bullish crossover
  • Proximity to support level at $2.91 and upcoming Q1 earnings release

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Forward P/E around 15 suggests reasonable valuation for anticipated earnings
  • DCF fair value indicating >50% upside potential
  • Revenue growth of ~8% and expanding AI‑driven procurement services

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Undervalued price relative to sales (P/S ≈0.05) and book value
  • Strategic position in China’s large MRO market with logistics and AI capabilities
  • Potential for margin improvement and sustained cash generation

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.90%
Profit Margin-1.55%
P/E Ratio15.4
ROE-4.63%
ROA-2.03%
Debt/Equity14.52
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$8.8M
Free Cash Flow$35.1M

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI46.9
Support$2.91
Resistance$3.24
MA 20$3.04
MA 50$3.11
MA 200$3.15
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.84

Valuation

Fair Value$13.09
Target Price$4.73
Upside/Downside56.58%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.41
Volatility27.89%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.