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XERS:NASDAQXeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-07 - not real-time

$6.18

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Xeris Biopharma trades around $6.18, barely above its 20‑day SMA (6.20) and just above the 50‑day SMA (6.10), indicating a tight price range and a neutral trend. Technical signals are mixed: RSI sits near 50, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is flagged as bearish, and volume is on a decreasing trajectory, suggesting limited short‑term momentum. Fundamentally, the company posts strong top‑line growth (38% YoY revenue growth) and an impressive gross margin of 86%, yet its valuation metrics are extreme – a trailing PE of 88 versus an industry average of 27, and a price‑to‑book of 75. The DCF model implies a fair value near $7.98, implying potential upside, but the balance sheet is strained with a debt‑to‑equity ratio approaching 2,000 and a net debt position that dwarfs its cash holdings. Upcoming earnings on March 2, 2026 could be a catalyst, but the market reaction has been muted so far.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD and decreasing volume signal limited upside
  • Upcoming earnings could swing sentiment
  • Valuation multiples remain far above peers

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Strong revenue growth and high gross margins
  • DCF‑based upside potential of roughly 30%+
  • Pipeline products (Gvoke, Keveyis, Recorlev) gaining market traction

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • High debt load creates balance‑sheet risk
  • Sustained growth depends on successful commercialization of late‑stage trials
  • Valuation still inflated relative to earnings and book value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth38.30%
Profit Margin3.81%
P/E Ratio88.3
ROA6.34%
Debt/Equity1987.19
P/B Ratio75.4
Op. Cash Flow$48.5M
Free Cash Flow$42.2M
Industry P/E27.9

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI50.6
Support$5.81
Resistance$6.64
MA 20$6.20
MA 50$6.10
MA 200$7.09
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.02

Valuation

Fair Value$7.98
Target Price$11.29
Upside/Downside82.62%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.98
Volatility40.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.