WTFC:NASDAQWintrust Financial Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$159.54
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Wintrust Financial (WTFC) is trading at $159.54, just below its 20‑day SMA of $160.98 but comfortably above the 50‑day SMA ($157.24) and the 200‑day SMA ($145.25), signalling a still‑positive longer‑term bias. The RSI sits at 49.9, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, suggesting short‑term pressure near the $155.43 support level. At a trailing P/E of 12.8 versus an industry average of 18.0, the stock appears undervalued, a view reinforced by a forward P/E of 11.5 and a price‑to‑book of 1.56. Revenue grew 10.2% YoY to $2.76 B, with operating margins near 46% and a solid ROE of 12.2%, underscoring strong profitability. The dividend yield of 1.38% with a modest 16.9% payout ratio points to sustainable income, and the recent board approval of a $0.55 quarterly dividend adds to the appeal. Recent news highlights a record Q2 net income driven by loan and deposit growth, a strategic acquisition of Northern Trust’s guardianship services, and an upcoming earnings release that could confirm the growth narrative, all of which support the analyst consensus “Buy” and a median price target of $183.
Given a beta of 0.85, 30‑day volatility of 18.8%, and stable volume, the stock balances modest market risk with sector‑specific sensitivities typical of regional banks. The upside potential of roughly 13% (target versus current price) combined with a low payout ratio and ample cash balances ($4.17 B) suggests that WTFC is well‑positioned for continued outperformance, provided it navigates any near‑term earnings volatility and regulatory headwinds.
Given a beta of 0.85, 30‑day volatility of 18.8%, and stable volume, the stock balances modest market risk with sector‑specific sensitivities typical of regional banks. The upside potential of roughly 13% (target versus current price) combined with a low payout ratio and ample cash balances ($4.17 B) suggests that WTFC is well‑positioned for continued outperformance, provided it navigates any near‑term earnings volatility and regulatory headwinds.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Proximity to support at $155.43 with bullish longer‑term trend
- Upcoming earnings release expected to confirm record Q2 performance
- Attractive dividend yield and low payout ratio
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth of 10% and strong operating margins
- Strategic acquisition of guardianship services expanding wealth management
- Analyst price targets implying ~13% upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Sustained profitability with ROE >12% and solid cash position
- Undervalued valuation metrics relative to industry peers
- Stable dividend policy with low payout supporting shareholder returns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.20%
Profit Margin32.64%
P/E Ratio12.8
ROE12.21%
ROA1.25%
P/B Ratio1.6
Industry P/E18.0
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI49.9
Support$155.43
Resistance$167.22
MA 20$160.98
MA 50$157.24
MA 200$145.25
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Target Price$180.07
Upside/Downside12.87%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.38%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.85
Volatility18.80%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.