BMRI:IDXPT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Analysis

BMRI is trading at IDR 4,750, which sits exactly on the calculated support level of 4,750 and below its 20‑day (5,088) and 50‑day (4,986) simple moving averages. The 30‑day volatility of 37% and a beta near zero signal a relatively stable price profile, while the RSI of 40 indicates the stock is not yet oversold. Technical momentum is mixed: a bullish trend flag is offset by a bearish MACD histogram of –46.9, suggesting short‑term pressure. Valuation metrics are compelling – a trailing P/E of 7.9 is less than half the industry average of 16.3 and the price‑to‑book of 1.5 is modest. The dividend yield of 2.1% with a payout ratio of 94% provides attractive income but raises sustainability questions.
Fundamentally, BMRI delivered a consolidated net profit of IDR 56.3 trillion for 2025, a modest 0.9% YoY increase, supported by a 4.4% rise in net interest income and an 18.7% surge in total assets. Profit margins remain strong at 38% and ROE is near 19%, underscoring efficient operations. However, operating cash flow turned negative in the latest period and Moody’s recently downgraded the outlook to negative, highlighting heightened regulatory risk. The stock’s upside potential is estimated at roughly 23% based on the target price of IDR 5,846, while the market sentiment index sits in “Greed” territory at 72.9. Taken together, the blend of solid earnings, attractive valuation, and dividend income offsets the near‑term cash‑flow weakness and regulatory headwinds.