VNCE:NASDAQVince Holding Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-08-02 - not real-time
$6.33
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) is trading at $6.33, just above its 20‑day SMA of 6.31 and comfortably over the 50‑day SMA of 5.85, a classic bullish alignment of moving averages. The 30‑day volatility of roughly 61% and a beta near 1.6 signal a stock that swings sharply with market moves, while an RSI of 52 indicates neutral momentum. Although the MACD histogram is negative, giving a bearish signal, the overall trend direction is flagged bullish and the price sits on a solid support level of $5.64 with resistance near $7.25. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 92.9 (“Extreme Greed”), reflecting strong market enthusiasm.
Fundamentally, VNCE trades at a forward PE of 8.8 and a price‑to‑book of 1.62, implying an upside of about 42% to the consensus $9 target. Revenue is growing at 10.5% with a healthy gross margin near 50%, but a negative operating margin, a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 260%, and negative free cash flow highlight financial strain. The stock pays no dividend, so dividend sustainability is not a factor. Analyst coverage rates VNCE as a “strong buy,” and the recent turnaround narrative adds qualitative support to the upside case.
Fundamentally, VNCE trades at a forward PE of 8.8 and a price‑to‑book of 1.62, implying an upside of about 42% to the consensus $9 target. Revenue is growing at 10.5% with a healthy gross margin near 50%, but a negative operating margin, a debt‑to‑equity ratio above 260%, and negative free cash flow highlight financial strain. The stock pays no dividend, so dividend sustainability is not a factor. Analyst coverage rates VNCE as a “strong buy,” and the recent turnaround narrative adds qualitative support to the upside case.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above the 20‑day SMA supports near‑term stability
- MACD bearish histogram warns of a possible short‑term pullback
- Decreasing volume raises liquidity concerns
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued valuation metrics (PE <10, P/B 1.6) provide margin of safety
- Turnaround narrative and 42% upside to the $9 target price
- Strong revenue growth and high gross margin support earnings potential
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Potential for improved operating efficiency could turn negative margins positive
- High beta and volatility suggest higher reward for patient investors
- Absence of dividend obligations and strategic brand licensing reduce cash‑flow pressure
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth10.50%
Profit Margin2.97%
P/E Ratio9.0
ROE21.28%
ROA3.15%
Debt/Equity269.48
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow$5.9M
Free Cash Flow$-3246625
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI52.3
Support$5.64
Resistance$7.25
MA 20$6.31
MA 50$5.85
MA 200$3.81
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.88
Valuation
Target Price$9.00
Upside/Downside42.18%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.61
Volatility60.81%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskHigh
Similar Tickers
MYMK
State Street My2031 Municipal Bond ETF
ETFVLYPN
Valley National Bancorp - 8.250% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series C
STOCKYALA
Yalla Group Limited
STOCKSTRRP
Star Equity Holdings, Inc. - 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock
STOCKRGA
Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated
STOCKPAYC
Paycom Software, Inc.
STOCKThis analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.