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VMET:NASDAQVersamet Royalties Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-09 - not real-time

$12.18

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Versamet Royalties trades around $12.18, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 11.87 and the 200‑day SMA of 11.03, suggesting a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD signal is flagged as bearish, while volume is on a decreasing trend, indicating weakening momentum. The stock sits in an extreme greed market environment (Fear & Greed Index 90.73) and exhibits very high 30‑day volatility (≈83%) and a beta of 1.16, underscoring heightened price swings.
Fundamentally, the company appears markedly overvalued – the DCF‑derived fair value is roughly $2.44 versus the current price, the PE ratio sits at 58×, and the price‑to‑book is nearly 5×. Revenue growth is modest at 4.65% with strong margins, yet free cash flow is deeply negative and debt stands at $171 M (Debt‑to‑Equity 73%). The recent $340 M cash acquisition of a 3.52% gold stream at Eskay Creek adds exposure to precious metals but also strains liquidity, as evidenced by decreasing trading volume and a high max drawdown of ~18%.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram despite SMA crossover
  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish SMA alignment and ongoing commodity price exposure
  • Recent gold‑stream acquisition could boost future royalties
  • Elevated debt load and negative free cash flow constrain upside

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • Long‑term royalty model offers upside with metal price cycles
  • Persistent overvaluation may limit capital appreciation
  • High leverage and cash‑flow challenges pose downside risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth465.20%
Profit Margin58.49%
P/E Ratio58.0
ROE9.13%
ROA7.47%
Debt/Equity73.09
P/B Ratio4.9
Op. Cash Flow$16.9M
Free Cash Flow$-145823248

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI56.1
Support$10.90
Resistance$13.73
MA 20$11.87
MA 200$11.03
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.73

Valuation

Fair Value$2.44
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.16
Volatility83.00%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.