VMET:NASDAQVersamet Royalties Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-09 - not real-time
$12.18
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Versamet Royalties trades around $12.18, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 11.87 and the 200‑day SMA of 11.03, suggesting a short‑term bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram is negative and the MACD signal is flagged as bearish, while volume is on a decreasing trend, indicating weakening momentum. The stock sits in an extreme greed market environment (Fear & Greed Index 90.73) and exhibits very high 30‑day volatility (≈83%) and a beta of 1.16, underscoring heightened price swings.
Fundamentally, the company appears markedly overvalued – the DCF‑derived fair value is roughly $2.44 versus the current price, the PE ratio sits at 58×, and the price‑to‑book is nearly 5×. Revenue growth is modest at 4.65% with strong margins, yet free cash flow is deeply negative and debt stands at $171 M (Debt‑to‑Equity 73%). The recent $340 M cash acquisition of a 3.52% gold stream at Eskay Creek adds exposure to precious metals but also strains liquidity, as evidenced by decreasing trading volume and a high max drawdown of ~18%.
Fundamentally, the company appears markedly overvalued – the DCF‑derived fair value is roughly $2.44 versus the current price, the PE ratio sits at 58×, and the price‑to‑book is nearly 5×. Revenue growth is modest at 4.65% with strong margins, yet free cash flow is deeply negative and debt stands at $171 M (Debt‑to‑Equity 73%). The recent $340 M cash acquisition of a 3.52% gold stream at Eskay Creek adds exposure to precious metals but also strains liquidity, as evidenced by decreasing trading volume and a high max drawdown of ~18%.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram despite SMA crossover
- Significant overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bullish SMA alignment and ongoing commodity price exposure
- Recent gold‑stream acquisition could boost future royalties
- Elevated debt load and negative free cash flow constrain upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Long‑term royalty model offers upside with metal price cycles
- Persistent overvaluation may limit capital appreciation
- High leverage and cash‑flow challenges pose downside risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth465.20%
Profit Margin58.49%
P/E Ratio58.0
ROE9.13%
ROA7.47%
Debt/Equity73.09
P/B Ratio4.9
Op. Cash Flow$16.9M
Free Cash Flow$-145823248
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI56.1
Support$10.90
Resistance$13.73
MA 20$11.87
MA 200$11.03
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.73
Valuation
Fair Value$2.44
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.16
Volatility83.00%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.