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VMBS:NASDAQVanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-09 - not real-time

$46.95

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

VMBS is trading at $46.95, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 46.98 and near the identified support level of $46.52, while facing resistance around $47.35. The fund delivers an attractive 4.23% dividend yield and boasts an ultra‑low expense ratio of 0.03%, with a tracking error of zero, indicating tight alignment to its benchmark. Risk metrics are modest: a 30‑day volatility of 4.7%, beta of just 0.08, and a max drawdown of only -2.84%, all underscored by a “Extreme Greed” market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 90.73). Technical signals are mixed – RSI sits at a neutral 50.38 and the MACD histogram is slightly bearish, suggesting limited upside momentum in the short run. Given the stable volume profile and low liquidity concerns, the ETF is well‑positioned for income‑focused investors who prioritize capital preservation over aggressive growth.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Neutral technical outlook with slight bearish MACD
  • High dividend yield supports total return
  • Low volatility and minimal drawdown risk

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Stable income generation from government‑backed MBS
  • Low expense ratio and zero tracking error
  • Interest‑rate environment likely to keep yields attractive

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Consistently low credit and currency risk
  • Long‑term capital preservation with steady yield
  • Fund’s structural low beta and minimal drawdowns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio3.00%
AUM$16.8B
Inception Date2009-11-19
Avg Daily Volume1,564,110
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.23%

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI50.4
Support$46.52
Resistance$47.35
MA 20$46.98
MA 50$47.00
MA 200$46.99
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73

Risk Assessment

Beta0.08
Volatility4.70%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.