VMBS:NASDAQVanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-16 - not real-time
$45.27
Latest Price
2/10Risk
Risk Level: Low
Executive Summary
At $45.27, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities Index Fund ETF Shares shows a bearish moving-average alignment, with shorter averages beneath longer ones. Across the trailing 30 sessions it lost 1.6%. Relative strength is 28.0 — oversold — and the MACD signal is bearish. Price has been bracketed by support at $45.14 and resistance at $46.47.
The 0.03% expense ratio is very low for its category, and the fund manages $17.59B in assets.
Risk comes out at 2 of a possible 10, a low reading. With 30-day volatility of 5.0%, a beta of 0.12 and a maximum drawdown of 5.4%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Near-term and long-term part ways here — sell short-term against hold longer out, with 2/10 conviction on the long call.
The 0.03% expense ratio is very low for its category, and the fund manages $17.59B in assets.
Risk comes out at 2 of a possible 10, a low reading. With 30-day volatility of 5.0%, a beta of 0.12 and a maximum drawdown of 5.4%, the drawdown profile is forgiving relative to most of the market. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 91 on the fear-greed composite.
Near-term and long-term part ways here — sell short-term against hold longer out, with 2/10 conviction on the long call.
Top Market Events
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF VMBS - $0.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- RSI at 28.0 signals oversold conditions
- Trading below the 200-day average of 46.79
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- RSI at 28.0 signals oversold conditions
- Trading below the 200-day average of 46.79
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 2/10
Key Factors
- Low expense ratio of 0.03%
- Short-term moving averages stacked below long-term ones
- RSI at 28.0 signals oversold conditions
Key Metrics & Analysis
Fund Metrics
Expense Ratio0.03%
AUM$17.6B
Inception Date2009-11-19
Avg Daily Volume1,586,090
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.25%
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI28.0
Support$45.14
Resistance$46.47
MA 20$45.95
MA 50$46.14
MA 200$46.79
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.95
Risk Assessment
Beta0.12
Volatility5.02%
Sector RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.