VLGEA:NASDAQVillage Super Market, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-09 - not real-time
$44.68
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Village Super Market, Inc. is trading at $44.68, just shy of the calculated resistance level of $44.87, while comfortably above the 20‑day SMA of $42.81 and the 50‑day SMA of $42.09, indicating a short‑term bullish bias. The RSI of 62 and a bullish MACD histogram reinforce this momentum, but the 30‑day volatility of 26.8% and a max drawdown of -21.6% suggest price swings can be sharp. Fundamentally, the stock appears modestly overvalued versus its DCF fair value of $40.60, though its PE of 11.7, dividend yield of 2.28% and a payout ratio of 26% point to a reasonably priced, income‑generating asset. Insider activity this month—sales by the CEO, CFO, and EVP—adds a note of caution, potentially tempering the technical upside.
Given the low beta of 0.10, the defensive grocery sector positioning, and stable cash flows (operating cash flow $111M, free cash flow $43M), the stock offers a defensive profile with attractive dividend income, but the current price premium and insider sell‑offs suggest a measured approach rather than aggressive buying.
Given the low beta of 0.10, the defensive grocery sector positioning, and stable cash flows (operating cash flow $111M, free cash flow $43M), the stock offers a defensive profile with attractive dividend income, but the current price premium and insider sell‑offs suggest a measured approach rather than aggressive buying.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical indicators (SMA alignment, RSI, MACD)
- Proximity to resistance level limiting upside
- Recent insider sales creating short‑term pressure
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Sustainable dividend yield of 2.28% with low payout ratio
- Low beta and defensive sector providing stability
- Steady revenue growth (~7%) and positive cash flow generation
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Consistent defensive grocery business model
- Reliable dividend income and solid ROE (~11%)
- Current price premium relative to DCF valuation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.90%
Profit Margin2.37%
P/E Ratio11.7
ROE11.44%
ROA4.58%
Debt/Equity63.70
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash Flow$111.0M
Free Cash Flow$43.0M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI61.8
Support$40.53
Resistance$44.87
MA 20$42.81
MA 50$42.09
MA 200$37.25
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73
Valuation
Fair Value$40.60
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.28%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.10
Volatility26.82%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.