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VIV:NYSETelefonica Brasil S.A. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-30 - not real-time

$12.88

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The stock is trading at $12.88, well below its 20‑day SMA of 13.64 and 50‑day SMA of 13.40, with the 200‑day SMA still higher at 13.95. A RSI of 39 suggests the shares are approaching oversold territory, yet the bearish MACD (line below signal) and a price hovering just above the identified support of 12.63 signal short‑term pressure, while volume is on the rise, indicating heightened trading activity.
Fundamentally, VIV delivers solid margins—48.7% gross, 16.5% operating and 10.7% profit—and a respectable 7.6% revenue growth rate. The current PE of 16.1 sits slightly above the industry average of 15.5, but the forward PE of 12.35 and an estimated upside of 17.4% point to undervaluation. The dividend yield is attractive at 7.7%, yet a payout ratio exceeding 120% raises sustainability concerns. With a moderate debt‑to‑equity of 30% and a low beta of 0.65 amid a 36% 30‑day volatility, the stock balances defensive sector traits against Brazil‑specific macro and regulatory headwinds.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Price near technical support at $12.63
  • Bearish MACD and modest upside potential
  • High dividend yield but unsustainable payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Revenue growth of 7.6% and improving margins
  • Forward PE of 12.35 indicating valuation upside
  • Undervalued relative to industry peers

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Stable cash generation and moderate leverage
  • Defensive telecom sector with growing digital services
  • Potential for dividend policy normalization as earnings improve

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth7.60%
Profit Margin10.68%
P/E Ratio16.1
ROE9.87%
ROA5.53%
Debt/Equity30.01
P/B Ratio3.1
Industry P/E15.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI39.3
Support$12.63
Resistance$14.26
MA 20$13.64
MA 50$13.40
MA 200$13.95
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.91

Valuation

Target Price$15.13
Upside/Downside17.45%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield7.70%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.65
Volatility35.97%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.