UVE:NYSEUNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-08 - not real-time
$40.53
Latest Price
4/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Universal Insurance Holdings is trading at a very low trailing P/E of about 6x, well below the industry average of 16.5x, and its current price of $40.53 sits roughly 8% beneath the consensus 12‑month target of $44, suggesting a modest upside. Strong profitability metrics – a 12% net margin, 38% ROE and a solid cash position of $595 M – combine with a low debt‑to‑equity of 17% and a dividend yield of 1.6% with a payout ratio under 10%, indicating sustainable shareholder returns.
Technical indicators are bullish: the 20‑day SMA (37.33) sits above both the 50‑day (35.53) and 200‑day (30.79) averages, the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI, while elevated at 66, still supports upward momentum. Volume is increasing and the stock is trading near its recent resistance of $41.96, with a support level around $33.33 providing a cushion. Recent earnings material showed Q1 results beating estimates, improved underwriting performance and a completed reinsurance renewal, reinforcing the positive outlook.
Technical indicators are bullish: the 20‑day SMA (37.33) sits above both the 50‑day (35.53) and 200‑day (30.79) averages, the MACD histogram is positive and the RSI, while elevated at 66, still supports upward momentum. Volume is increasing and the stock is trading near its recent resistance of $41.96, with a support level around $33.33 providing a cushion. Recent earnings material showed Q1 results beating estimates, improved underwriting performance and a completed reinsurance renewal, reinforcing the positive outlook.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price near short‑term resistance with elevated RSI
- Positive MACD and increasing volume
- Recent earnings beat supporting momentum
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued valuation relative to peers
- Strong ROE and cash flow generation
- Sustainable dividend with ample coverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Resilient property‑casualty business model
- Low beta indicating limited market volatility
- Reinsurance renewal completed, protecting future earnings
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-0.30%
Profit Margin12.22%
P/E Ratio6.0
ROE38.88%
ROA6.06%
Debt/Equity17.15
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow$349.5M
Free Cash Flow$338.5M
Industry P/E16.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI66.4
Support$33.33
Resistance$41.96
MA 20$37.33
MA 50$35.53
MA 200$30.79
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93
Valuation
Fair Value$180.31
Target Price$44.00
Upside/Downside8.56%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.59%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.49
Volatility47.72%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.