USAR:NASDAQUSA Rare Earth, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-20 - not real-time
$15.37
Latest Price
9/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind USA Rare Earth, Inc. is neutral at $15.37, with no clear ordering between short and long averages. It has lost 11.7% over the past 30 days. RSI sits at 38.7, which reads as approaching oversold, and MACD momentum is bearish. Price has been bracketed by support at $14.88 and resistance at $20.52.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 512.3, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Consensus targets land 131.3% above where the shares trade now.
Risk comes out at 9 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 72.0%, a beta of 3.53 and a maximum drawdown of 69.2%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Near-term and long-term part ways here — sell short-term against hold longer out, with 3/10 conviction on the long call.
On valuation the read is fair — an earnings multiple of 512.3, absent a reliable peer benchmark. Consensus targets land 131.3% above where the shares trade now.
Risk comes out at 9 of a possible 10, a high reading. With 30-day volatility of 72.0%, a beta of 3.53 and a maximum drawdown of 69.2%, position sizing matters more than entry timing here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 95 on the fear-greed composite.
Near-term and long-term part ways here — sell short-term against hold longer out, with 3/10 conviction on the long call.
Top Market Events
U.S. Department of War DoW provides a $750 million investment in the SPV, reflecting a $250 million increase over...U.S. Department of War DoW provides a $750 million investment in the SPV, reflecting a $250 million increase over...STILLWATER, Okla., Aug. 06, 2026 GLOBE NEWSWIRE -- USA Rare Earth, Inc. Nasdaq: USAR the Company , today announced that...
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- Trading below the 200-day average of 19.37
- MACD momentum is negative
- 30-day price change of -11.7%
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Trading below the 200-day average of 19.37
- Analyst targets imply +131.3% versus the current price
- 30-day volatility of 72.0%
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Analyst targets imply +131.3% versus the current price
- Negative return on equity of -23.6%
- Negative free cash flow
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
P/E Ratio512.3
ROE-23.56%
ROA-4.45%
Debt/Equity0.13
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow$-106071000
Free Cash Flow$-283956512
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI38.7
Support$14.88
Resistance$20.52
MA 20$17.24
MA 50$17.01
MA 200$19.37
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.98
Valuation
Target Price$35.56
Upside/Downside131.33%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta3.53
Volatility72.04%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.