STKS:NASDAQThe ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-03 - not real-time
$1.85
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
The stock is trading at $1.85, well below its 20‑day SMA of $1.75 and the 50‑day SMA of $1.84, indicating a bearish price alignment despite a modestly bullish MACD histogram. RSI sits at 55, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while a beta of ~1.5 and a 30‑day volatility above 60% signal a highly responsive but erratic price action. Fundamentally, the company reports negative trailing EPS of -$4.05, a PE of zero, and a distressing debt‑to‑equity ratio above 580, reflecting severe balance‑sheet pressure.
The forward PE of 3.36 and a price‑to‑sales of 0.07 imply a potentially attractive valuation relative to its target median price of $5, translating to an upside of over 160%. However, the lack of dividend, negative free cash flow, and a max drawdown exceeding 67% underscore significant downside risk. Recent investor‑focused events, such as the upcoming Sidoti’s Small‑Cap Virtual Investor Conference, provide limited operational catalysts. Overall, the stock sits at a technical support near $1.65, faces a bearish trend, yet offers a large upside if a turnaround materializes.
The forward PE of 3.36 and a price‑to‑sales of 0.07 imply a potentially attractive valuation relative to its target median price of $5, translating to an upside of over 160%. However, the lack of dividend, negative free cash flow, and a max drawdown exceeding 67% underscore significant downside risk. Recent investor‑focused events, such as the upcoming Sidoti’s Small‑Cap Virtual Investor Conference, provide limited operational catalysts. Overall, the stock sits at a technical support near $1.65, faces a bearish trend, yet offers a large upside if a turnaround materializes.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bearish SMA crossover and price below 20‑day SMA
- High beta and 30‑day volatility over 60%
- Negative earnings and deteriorating cash flow
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Forward PE suggests valuation upside
- Large upside potential versus current price
- Continued balance‑sheet weakness and debt load
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Target median price indicates >150% upside
- Potential operational turnaround via brand repositioning
- Improving investor sentiment as reflected by extreme greed index
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-6.70%
Profit Margin-11.45%
P/E Ratio3.4
ROE-59.84%
ROA2.55%
Debt/Equity584.66
P/B Ratio-0.8
Op. Cash Flow$30.3M
Free Cash Flow$-18293750
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI55.1
Support$1.65
Resistance$2.03
MA 20$1.75
MA 50$1.84
MA 200$2.25
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.09
Valuation
Target Price$4.89
Upside/Downside164.41%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Risk Assessment
Beta1.56
Volatility64.49%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.