SLVM:NYSESylvamo Corporation Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time
$38.68
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Sylvamo trades around $38.7, roughly 19% above its DCF‑derived fair value of $32.5, and sits below both its 20‑day (38.5) and 50‑day (40.9) moving averages, signaling a bearish technical backdrop. The stock’s 30‑day volatility exceeds 40% and the recent Q1 2026 earnings reported a loss of $0.53 per share, driven by operational reliability issues in Europe and Brazil and higher input costs, while the MACD histogram turned modestly positive, hinting at a possible short‑term bounce.
Despite a generous 4.65% dividend yield, the payout ratio nears 90% and free cash flow is negative, raising sustainability concerns. Analysts project a median target of $56, implying a potential upside of over 50%, yet the company’s –8% revenue growth, thin operating margin, and 100% debt‑to‑equity ratio amplify risk across the medium to long horizon.
Despite a generous 4.65% dividend yield, the payout ratio nears 90% and free cash flow is negative, raising sustainability concerns. Analysts project a median target of $56, implying a potential upside of over 50%, yet the company’s –8% revenue growth, thin operating margin, and 100% debt‑to‑equity ratio amplify risk across the medium to long horizon.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish technical positioning (price below 20‑day SMA)
- Q1 earnings miss and operational setbacks in Europe and Brazil
- Support level near $35.5 limiting immediate downside
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Analyst median target of $56 suggests >50% upside
- High dividend yield attractive if cash flow improves
- MACD histogram turning positive indicating potential reversal
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Negative revenue growth and thin margins erode profitability
- High debt‑to‑equity ratio and negative free cash flow stress balance sheet
- Sustained macro headwinds and regulatory pressures in the paper sector
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-8.00%
Profit Margin3.10%
P/E Ratio15.4
ROE10.81%
ROA4.80%
Debt/Equity100.61
P/B Ratio1.6
Op. Cash Flow$235.0M
Free Cash Flow$-22875000
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.1
Support$35.53
Resistance$42.61
MA 20$38.52
MA 50$40.90
MA 200$44.63
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.64
Valuation
Fair Value$32.50
Target Price$59.00
Upside/Downside52.53%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield4.65%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.77
Volatility41.04%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.