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SMBC:NASDAQSouthern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-01 - not real-time

$68.24

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

SMBC is trading well above its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a strong bullish bias. The MACD histogram remains positive and the MACD line sits above its signal, reinforcing upward momentum. RSI hovers in the upper‑mid range, suggesting continued buying pressure without being overbought. Volume has tapered, yet price stability around a solid support level mitigates immediate downside concerns. The stock’s beta below one indicates lower sensitivity to market swings, while thirty‑day volatility near twenty percent reflects moderate price swings. Market sentiment is in “Extreme Greed” territory, aligning with the technical optimism.
Recent earnings releases showed SMBC beating consensus estimates and delivering strong loan growth alongside an improving net interest margin. Operating margins near fifty percent and a profit margin above thirty percent underscore efficient cost management. The forward‑looking P/E of roughly ten versus an industry average above seventeen positions the stock as markedly undervalued. A dividend yield around one and a half percent with a payout ratio under twenty percent points to sustainable shareholder returns. Analyst coverage, though limited, carries a consensus “Buy” and price targets imply upside in the high single‑digit range. Combined, the technical strength and fundamental resilience suggest the stock is well‑placed for continued outperformance.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Price above all major moving averages and bullish MACD
  • Earnings beat and strong loan growth guidance
  • Undervalued relative to industry P/E

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained improvement in net interest margin
  • High operating and profit margins supporting earnings stability
  • Dividend yield with low payout ratio indicating sustainability

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Solid ROE and low beta suggesting stable returns
  • Regional exposure limiting geographic concentration risk
  • Moderate credit risk inherent to regional banking sector

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth6.50%
Profit Margin36.26%
P/E Ratio11.8
ROE12.22%
ROA1.33%
P/B Ratio1.3
Industry P/E17.6

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI59.9
Support$63.11
Resistance$70.10
MA 20$66.96
MA 50$64.45
MA 200$58.80
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.88

Valuation

Target Price$73.33
Upside/Downside7.46%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.47%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.87
Volatility20.57%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.