NTPC:NSENTPC FUTURES Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
₹377.30
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
NTPC’s share price of ₹377.3 sits comfortably above its 20‑day (₹373.55), 50‑day (₹357.34) and 200‑day (₹339.65) simple moving averages, underscoring a bullish technical backdrop. The RSI at 57 indicates modest upward momentum while the MACD histogram is negative, hinting at a short‑term bearish divergence that warrants caution. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the price advance toward the resistance of ₹388.55 and above the key support level of ₹361.25. Market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone (Fear‑Greed Index 76.9), yet 30‑day volatility remains elevated at 24.7%, reflecting price swings that could surprise traders. On the fundamentals side, Q3 FY26 PAT grew 5.85% YoY to ₹4,987 cr despite a 1.5% revenue dip, and the company offers a solid 3.02% dividend yield. Valuation metrics show a trailing PE of 20.9 and a forward PE of 14.0, suggesting the stock is moderately priced relative to earnings expectations. With a low beta (0.022 computed, 0.283 on the quote) and a market cap exceeding ₹3.6 trn, NTPC presents a stable, low‑volatility profile that aligns with long‑term utility investors.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price above all major SMAs indicating bullish bias
- Negative MACD histogram suggests near‑term downside risk
- Increasing volume supports current price level
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Consistent earnings growth and strong dividend yield
- Forward PE compression to ~14x implying upside potential
- Support level comfortably below current price with bullish trend direction
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Low beta and large market cap provide defensive stability
- Sustained dividend policy and reliable cash flow generation
- Fundamental demand for electricity in a growing Indian economy
Key Metrics & Analysis
Commodity Metrics
Spot Price377.3
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeTight
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityLow
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI57.1
Support₹361.25
Resistance₹388.55
MA 20₹373.55
MA 50₹357.34
MA 200₹339.65
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Risk Assessment
Beta0.02
Volatility24.74%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.