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NTPC:NSENTPC FUTURES Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

₹377.30

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

NTPC’s share price of ₹377.3 sits comfortably above its 20‑day (₹373.55), 50‑day (₹357.34) and 200‑day (₹339.65) simple moving averages, underscoring a bullish technical backdrop. The RSI at 57 indicates modest upward momentum while the MACD histogram is negative, hinting at a short‑term bearish divergence that warrants caution. Volume is on an increasing trend, supporting the price advance toward the resistance of ₹388.55 and above the key support level of ₹361.25. Market sentiment is in the “Extreme Greed” zone (Fear‑Greed Index 76.9), yet 30‑day volatility remains elevated at 24.7%, reflecting price swings that could surprise traders. On the fundamentals side, Q3 FY26 PAT grew 5.85% YoY to ₹4,987 cr despite a 1.5% revenue dip, and the company offers a solid 3.02% dividend yield. Valuation metrics show a trailing PE of 20.9 and a forward PE of 14.0, suggesting the stock is moderately priced relative to earnings expectations. With a low beta (0.022 computed, 0.283 on the quote) and a market cap exceeding ₹3.6 trn, NTPC presents a stable, low‑volatility profile that aligns with long‑term utility investors.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price above all major SMAs indicating bullish bias
  • Negative MACD histogram suggests near‑term downside risk
  • Increasing volume supports current price level

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Consistent earnings growth and strong dividend yield
  • Forward PE compression to ~14x implying upside potential
  • Support level comfortably below current price with bullish trend direction

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Low beta and large market cap provide defensive stability
  • Sustained dividend policy and reliable cash flow generation
  • Fundamental demand for electricity in a growing Indian economy

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price377.3
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeTight
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityLow

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI57.1
Support₹361.25
Resistance₹388.55
MA 20₹373.55
MA 50₹357.34
MA 200₹339.65
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Risk Assessment

Beta0.02
Volatility24.74%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.