PATANJALI:NSEPATANJALI FUTURES Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-16 - not real-time
₹480.75
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The stock is trading at ₹480.75, essentially hugging the identified support level of ₹480.05 and well below its 20‑day SMA of ₹512.44, 50‑day SMA of ₹522.23, and 200‑day SMA of ₹566.31. Technical momentum is weak, with an RSI of 29.3 (deeply oversold), a bearish MACD divergence (line -9.53 vs signal -6.77) and a decreasing volume trend, while 30‑day volatility sits near 19 %, underscoring heightened price swings. Fundamentally, the company posted record Q3 FY26 revenue of ₹10,043.71 crore (+16.5 % YoY) and a profit surge driven by a Rs 317 crore tax credit, supporting a forward PE of ≈29 and a modest 0.5 % dividend yield. Despite the bullish earnings backdrop, the broader market sentiment reflected by a Fear‑Greed Index of 72.88 (Greed) contrasts with the stock’s bearish technical setup and a negative beta of ‑0.28, indicating slight inverse correlation to market moves.
Given the current price proximity to support, the bearish technical indicators, and the elevated volatility, short‑term downside risk remains pronounced. However, the strong revenue growth, tax‑credit‑driven profit boost, and defensive FMCG positioning provide a foundation for a medium‑term recovery and a longer‑term upside thesis, especially if the price can break above the 20‑day SMA and sustain higher volumes.
Given the current price proximity to support, the bearish technical indicators, and the elevated volatility, short‑term downside risk remains pronounced. However, the strong revenue growth, tax‑credit‑driven profit boost, and defensive FMCG positioning provide a foundation for a medium‑term recovery and a longer‑term upside thesis, especially if the price can break above the 20‑day SMA and sustain higher volumes.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price at support and below all major SMAs
- Bearish MACD and low RSI indicating continued weakness
- Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Record Q3 revenue and profit boost from tax credit
- Potential for price to recover above 20‑day SMA
- Stabilizing volume trend needed for confidence
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong top‑line growth and defensive FMCG positioning
- Attractive valuation relative to earnings potential
- Low currency and geopolitical risk with negative beta offering hedge
Key Metrics & Analysis
Commodity Metrics
Spot Price480.75
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelHigh
Supply/Demand RegimeOversupplied
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityLow
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI29.3
Support₹480.05
Resistance₹540.30
MA 20₹512.44
MA 50₹522.23
MA 200₹566.31
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.14
Volatility19.10%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.