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LULU:NASDAQlululemon athletica inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-12 - not real-time

$119.26

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Lululemon is trading well below its long‑term moving average, with the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs sitting above the current price, reinforcing a short‑term bearish bias. Fundamentally, the stock looks cheap – a sub‑10 PE ratio, strong gross margins and a DCF model that points to a fair value materially higher than today’s price, implying modest upside. Recent earnings showed a 4% revenue increase to $2.5 billion, but EPS slipped versus the prior year, highlighting a mixed earnings narrative. The market sentiment is extremely bullish, as reflected by the extreme‑greed index, yet technical momentum (RSI near 50) remains neutral and volume is trending down, suggesting waning buying pressure.
Given the combination of a solid balance sheet, high ROE, and a valuation gap, the stock presents a compelling case for investors with a longer horizon, while short‑term traders should be cautious of the bearish technical backdrop.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • price below 20‑day SMA
  • MACD histogram turning positive but overall bearish trend
  • decreasing trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • DCF valuation indicates upside
  • low PE ratio relative to peers
  • steady revenue growth and strong operating margins

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 9/10

Key Factors

  • strong brand moat and expanding omnichannel footprint
  • high ROE and solid cash generation
  • valuation gap between market price and intrinsic fair value

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.30%
Profit Margin13.03%
P/E Ratio9.6
ROE32.03%
ROA16.05%
Debt/Equity44.26
P/B Ratio2.8
Op. Cash Flow$1.9B
Free Cash Flow$1.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI51.7
Support$104.44
Resistance$122.61
MA 20$114.82
MA 50$121.91
MA 200$163.42
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.59

Valuation

Fair Value$151.52
Target Price$130.65
Upside/Downside9.55%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta1.40
Volatility47.98%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.