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AMZN:NASDAQAmazon.com, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$213.12

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Amazon (AMZN) trades at $213.12, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $207.9 but still under the 50‑day ($225.4) and 200‑day ($224.5) averages, indicating a short‑term pull‑back within a longer‑term uptrend. The RSI sits at 47.5, suggesting neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram is positive (+2.02) and the MACD signal is flagged “bullish,” hinting at a possible rebound. Volatility remains high at 33.4% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.3, so price swings are expected. Valuation metrics show a trailing PE of 29.8 and a forward PE of 22.8, with a price‑to‑book of 5.56, placing the stock in the growth‑premium range rather than a deep discount. The DCF‑derived fair value of $49.2 per share is far below the market price, yet analysts project a 31.6% upside to a target median of $285, reflecting confidence in Amazon’s growth story. Revenue is expanding at 13.6% YoY, margins remain robust (gross 50.3%, operating 10.5%), and free cash flow, though modest at $23.8B, supports ongoing investment.
Recent news underscores the catalyst mix: Morgan Stanley highlights AWS acceleration and AI positioning, BofA cites Anthropic‑related AI revenue upside, and Amazon’s new low‑Earth‑orbit satellite broadband network expands its connectivity portfolio. Wells Fargo maintains an Overweight rating with >40% upside, and the broader market sentiment is in “Greed” mode (Fear‑Greed Index 68.8). Together, strong top‑line growth, strategic AI and cloud initiatives, and bullish analyst coverage outweigh the elevated volatility and debt‑to‑equity ratio, making the stock attractive for investors with a growth bias.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD histogram and signal
  • Support near $196 and price above 20‑day SMA
  • Positive analyst sentiment with near‑term upside potential

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • 13.6% revenue growth driven by AWS and AI services
  • Analyst price targets averaging $280‑$285
  • Strategic expansion into satellite broadband and AI partnerships

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained competitive moat in cloud and e‑commerce
  • Strong cash position offsetting high debt levels
  • Long‑term secular tailwinds from AI, cloud computing, and logistics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth13.60%
Profit Margin10.83%
P/E Ratio29.8
ROE22.29%
ROA6.93%
Debt/Equity43.44
P/B Ratio5.6
Op. Cash Flow$139.5B
Free Cash Flow$23.8B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI47.5
Support$196.00
Resistance$220.47
MA 20$207.89
MA 50$225.39
MA 200$224.48
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index68.77

Valuation

Fair Value$49.23
Target Price$280.47
Upside/Downside31.60%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.30
Volatility33.37%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.