KLBF:IDXPT Kalbe Farma Tbk Analysis

KLBF trades at IDR 810, delivering a trailing PE of 10.16—well below the industry average of 27.63—signaling a substantial valuation discount. The DCF model estimates a fair value of **IDR 1,149**, implying a **77% upside** from the current price. Revenue is expanding at **10% YoY**, with a solid **gross margin of 38%** and **ROE of 14.4%**, underscoring strong operational performance. The company generates robust cash flow, posting **IDR 3.19 trillion** in operating cash flow and a **free cash flow of IDR 2.40 trillion**, while maintaining a modest debt‑to‑equity of 1.19. A **dividend yield of 4.44%** and a **payout ratio of 45%** indicate a sustainable income stream for shareholders. Analyst consensus (16 analysts) rates the stock as **strong‑buy** with a median target of **IDR 1,545**, reinforcing the upside narrative.
Technically, the share price sits **below the 20‑day SMA (856.75), 50‑day SMA (924.4) and 200‑day SMA (1,135.15)**, confirming a bearish trend. However, the **RSI of 30.6** places the stock in oversold territory, hinting at a potential short‑term bounce. The MACD line remains negative and the histogram is contracting, supporting the current **bearish momentum**. The price is hovering just above the identified **support level of 790**, with resistance near **935**, framing a tight trading range. Volatility is elevated at **≈28% over 30 days**, but the beta of **0.51** suggests limited systematic risk. Coupled with an **Extreme Greed** market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index 91.8), the downside risk appears contained while upside potential remains compelling.