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GRASIM:NSEGRASIM INDUSTRIES FUTURES Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time

₹2,568.60

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Grasim Industries is trading just above its immediate support of ₹2,563 with a current price of ₹2,568.6, while the 20‑day and 200‑day SMAs (₹2,796.6 and ₹2,784.4) sit well above the market, indicating a bearish gap that the stock must close. The RSI of 29.9 places the equity in oversold territory, and the MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing short‑term downside pressure, yet volume is on an increasing trend and 30‑day volatility is elevated at 25.8%, suggesting active trading and potential for a rebound. A negative beta of -0.19 and a “Greed” label on the Fear‑Greed Index (72.88) reflect a market environment that is currently optimistic but may be pricing in limited downside risk.
The recent Q3 FY'26 results beat expectations, delivering a 28.7% profit surge to ₹2,233 crore and a 25% revenue jump to ₹44,311 crore, underpinning a forward PE of 21.8 versus a trailing PE of 38.6. This earnings momentum, combined with a clear upside corridor toward the resistance level of ₹2,960, points to a tightening supply‑demand regime in its core building‑materials segment, while the company's domestic focus keeps USD and geopolitical sensitivities low.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering near support with oversold RSI
  • Negative MACD indicating bearish momentum
  • Increasing volume and high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Strong Q3 earnings growth and revenue expansion
  • Forward PE compression to ~21x
  • Clear upside path toward resistance at ₹2,960

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Sustained demand in building‑materials and financial services
  • Robust balance sheet with modest dividend yield
  • Low currency and geopolitical exposure

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price2568.6
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeTight
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityLow
Geopolitical SensitivityLow

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI29.9
Support₹2,563.10
Resistance₹2,960.00
MA 20₹2,796.59
MA 50₹2,814.63
MA 200₹2,784.45
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.19
Volatility25.83%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.