ENSG:NASDAQThe Ensign Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-30 - not real-time
$158.19
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Technical outlook: The stock is trading below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages, with an RSI in the low‑40s and a MACD line still negative despite a modest bullish histogram. Volatility over the past 30 days is elevated, while beta remains low, suggesting price swings are driven more by company‑specific factors than market moves. Valuation pressure: The discounted cash flow fair‑value estimate sits well beneath the current market price, indicating the market may be pricing in optimistic growth expectations that are not fully supported by fundamentals.
Fundamental backdrop & news: Revenue is growing at a healthy double‑digit rate and the company maintains a low dividend payout with solid cash flow, but a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and recent investigations into alleged CMS rating manipulation and securities fraud introduce material regulatory headwinds. Recent acquisition activity and an expanded stock repurchase program provide upside catalysts, yet the ongoing scrutiny tempers short‑term confidence.
Fundamental backdrop & news: Revenue is growing at a healthy double‑digit rate and the company maintains a low dividend payout with solid cash flow, but a high debt‑to‑equity ratio and recent investigations into alleged CMS rating manipulation and securities fraud introduce material regulatory headwinds. Recent acquisition activity and an expanded stock repurchase program provide upside catalysts, yet the ongoing scrutiny tempers short‑term confidence.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- ongoing securities‑fraud investigations
- price trading below key moving averages
- elevated short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- robust revenue growth and recent acquisition
- low dividend payout supporting cash preservation
- expanded share‑repurchase authorization
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- demographic tailwinds for senior‑care services
- potential resolution of regulatory issues
- sustainable earnings growth despite high leverage
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth18.40%
Profit Margin6.89%
P/E Ratio25.8
ROE16.92%
ROA5.41%
Debt/Equity94.72
P/B Ratio3.9
Op. Cash Flow$592.2M
Free Cash Flow$291.3M
Industry P/E25.9
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI43.7
Support$141.58
Resistance$171.26
MA 20$158.78
MA 50$171.65
MA 200$182.81
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.91
Valuation
Fair Value$113.94
Target Price$220.40
Upside/Downside39.33%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield0.16%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.11
Volatility38.75%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.