EL:BVBSocietatea Energetica Electrica S.A. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-17 - not real-time
$88.76
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Current price ($88.76) sits well above the DCF fair value ($63.42), implying a ~23.6% downside. Technicals are bearish: the price is below the 20‑day (101.9), 50‑day (107.7) and 200‑day (94.5) SMAs, RSI is at 33 (oversold) and MACD shows a bearish divergence. The stock’s beta of 1.55 and 30‑day volatility of 79% signal heightened price swings. On the earnings side, EL beat Q2 expectations with EPS $0.89 vs $0.835, providing a short‑term positive catalyst.
Fundamentally, revenue is growing modestly (5.6%) with strong gross margins (74%) but a negative profit margin (‑1.2%) and a staggering debt‑to‑equity of 233, raising solvency concerns. The dividend payout ratio exceeds 470%, making the 1.58% yield unlikely to be sustainable. Analyst consensus remains a “Buy” but recent downgrades to “Hold” reflect valuation pressure. The mix of overvaluation, earnings beat, and financial strain suggests caution.
Fundamentally, revenue is growing modestly (5.6%) with strong gross margins (74%) but a negative profit margin (‑1.2%) and a staggering debt‑to‑equity of 233, raising solvency concerns. The dividend payout ratio exceeds 470%, making the 1.58% yield unlikely to be sustainable. Analyst consensus remains a “Buy” but recent downgrades to “Hold” reflect valuation pressure. The mix of overvaluation, earnings beat, and financial strain suggests caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price trading below all major SMAs
- Bearish MACD and RSI indicating further downside
- Recent earnings beat unlikely to offset valuation gap
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Revenue growth and strong gross margins provide upside potential
- High debt and unsustainable dividend payout constrain upside
- Analyst consensus still favorable despite recent downgrade
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Brand strength and premium positioning in consumer defensive sector
- Potential for balance‑sheet deleveraging and dividend policy reset
- Long‑term secular demand for beauty and personal care products
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.60%
Profit Margin-1.21%
P/E Ratio29.3
ROE-4.34%
ROA4.42%
Debt/Equity232.94
P/B Ratio8.0
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$1.7B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI33.4
Support$84.11
Resistance$117.57
MA 20$101.92
MA 50$107.71
MA 200$94.45
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index79.45
Valuation
Fair Value$63.42
Target Price$109.70
Upside/Downside23.59%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.58%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.55
Volatility79.11%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.