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DCO:NYSEDucommun Incorporated Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-28 - not real-time

$120.78

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

The 20‑day SMA is positioned above the 50‑day SMA and the 200‑day SMA, indicating a bullish trend, while the RSI sits near the mid‑range at 44, suggesting neutral momentum. MACD shows a bearish histogram, and the price is trading just above the identified support level, raising short‑term downside risk. Revenue growth of roughly 9% YoY provides a positive backdrop, yet the company still reports a negative profit margin and operating cash flow. The DCF‑derived fair value of about $38 versus the current market price near $121 signals a substantial overvaluation. Analyst consensus is a strong‑buy with a median price target around $143, reflecting optimism about a forward EPS upside. However, volatility exceeding 40% and a decreasing volume trend introduce liquidity concerns, and the lack of any dividend eliminates income‑generation appeal. Overall, technical indicators are mixed, fundamentals show growth potential, but valuation appears stretched.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram
  • Price near support level
  • Decreasing volume trend

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish SMA alignment
  • Revenue growth and forward EPS upside
  • Strong‑buy analyst consensus with high target price

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 4/10

Key Factors

  • High 30‑day volatility
  • Significant overvaluation relative to DCF
  • Absence of dividend and ongoing profitability concerns

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.40%
Profit Margin-4.11%
P/E Ratio23.0
ROE-5.05%
ROA4.18%
Debt/Equity52.43
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow$-33405000
Free Cash Flow$44.0M
Industry P/E28.1

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI44.2
Support$119.97
Resistance$140.02
MA 20$127.26
MA 50$122.32
MA 200$99.24
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index65.98

Valuation

Fair Value$38.12
Target Price$143.60
Upside/Downside18.89%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.91
Volatility40.52%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.