DCO:NYSEDucommun Incorporated Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-28 - not real-time
$120.78
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The 20‑day SMA is positioned above the 50‑day SMA and the 200‑day SMA, indicating a bullish trend, while the RSI sits near the mid‑range at 44, suggesting neutral momentum. MACD shows a bearish histogram, and the price is trading just above the identified support level, raising short‑term downside risk. Revenue growth of roughly 9% YoY provides a positive backdrop, yet the company still reports a negative profit margin and operating cash flow. The DCF‑derived fair value of about $38 versus the current market price near $121 signals a substantial overvaluation. Analyst consensus is a strong‑buy with a median price target around $143, reflecting optimism about a forward EPS upside. However, volatility exceeding 40% and a decreasing volume trend introduce liquidity concerns, and the lack of any dividend eliminates income‑generation appeal. Overall, technical indicators are mixed, fundamentals show growth potential, but valuation appears stretched.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram
- Price near support level
- Decreasing volume trend
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish SMA alignment
- Revenue growth and forward EPS upside
- Strong‑buy analyst consensus with high target price
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 4/10
Key Factors
- High 30‑day volatility
- Significant overvaluation relative to DCF
- Absence of dividend and ongoing profitability concerns
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.40%
Profit Margin-4.11%
P/E Ratio23.0
ROE-5.05%
ROA4.18%
Debt/Equity52.43
P/B Ratio2.7
Op. Cash Flow$-33405000
Free Cash Flow$44.0M
Industry P/E28.1
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI44.2
Support$119.97
Resistance$140.02
MA 20$127.26
MA 50$122.32
MA 200$99.24
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index65.98
Valuation
Fair Value$38.12
Target Price$143.60
Upside/Downside18.89%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.91
Volatility40.52%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.