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DAWN:NASDAQDay One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-28 - not real-time

$21.41

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Day One Biopharmaceuticals is trading near its 52‑week high at $21.41, with the 20‑day SMA ($19.37) comfortably below price and the 200‑day SMA ($9.38) indicating a strong long‑term uptrend. The RSI is elevated at 81.5, suggesting the stock is overbought in the short term, while the MACD histogram has turned negative, hinting at a potential near‑term pullback. Volatility is extreme, with a 30‑day range exceeding 167%, and volume is on a decreasing trend, which could amplify price swings. The beta of roughly 0.78 points to lower systematic risk than the market, yet the biotech sector’s inherent regulatory and clinical‑trial uncertainty remains high. Fundamentally, the company posts deep losses (negative operating margin and negative EPS) and a forward PE of –501, but its price‑to‑book (5×) and price‑to‑sales (14×) are elevated relative to peers.
Recent headlines reveal a $2.5 billion acquisition by Servier, offering a 68% premium and driving a dramatic price surge, but also trigger a class‑action investigation over fair‑price concerns. The deal could provide a clear exit for shareholders, yet the pending litigation adds short‑term legal risk. Overall, the stock sits at the intersection of a high‑valuation, high‑volatility biotech with a transformative M&A catalyst.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Overbought technicals (RSI > 80)
  • Pending class‑action investigation
  • Decreasing volume and high short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Confirmed $2.5 billion acquisition premium
  • Strong pipeline with Phase II/III candidates
  • Long‑term uptrend confirmed by moving averages

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Fundamental losses and negative cash flow
  • Potential integration risk post‑acquisition
  • Biotech sector’s regulatory uncertainty

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth83.90%
Profit Margin-67.85%
P/E Ratio-501.3
ROE-22.74%
ROA-14.64%
Debt/Equity0.63
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$-103757000
Free Cash Flow$-61958752
Industry P/E25.0

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI81.5
Support$9.97
Resistance$21.46
MA 20$19.37
MA 50$14.60
MA 200$9.38
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index65.98

Valuation

Target Price$21.50
Upside/Downside0.42%
GradeFair
TypeBlend

Risk Assessment

Beta0.78
Volatility167.29%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.