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CSWC:NASDAQCapital Southwest Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-13 - not real-time

$23.54

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Capital Southwest Corp (CSWC) trades at $23.54, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (23.31) and 50‑day SMA (23.46), while the 30‑day RSI sits at a neutral 52.5. The MACD histogram is positive (0.023) with a bullish signal, suggesting short‑term momentum may continue, but the stock is near its technical resistance at $23.80. Fundamentally, the forward PE of 10.6 is well below the industry average of 16.8, and the current PE of 12.4 signals relative cheapness, yet the DCF‑derived fair value of $15.78 indicates the market is pricing in a premium. Dividend yield is exceptionally high at 10.9% but the payout ratio exceeds 140% and operating cash flow is negative, raising concerns about sustainability. The balance sheet shows a high debt‑to‑equity of 119%, adding leverage risk despite a low beta of 0.70 and moderate 30‑day volatility of 17.8%.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish MACD and price above short‑term moving averages
  • Proximity to technical resistance at $23.80
  • High dividend yield but unsustainable payout

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Portfolio growth of 17% and 40% ROE reported
  • Forward PE of 10.6 versus industry average of 16.8
  • Upside potential to analyst target median price of $25

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity > 100%)
  • Dividend sustainability concerns
  • Stable cash flow generation and low beta

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-4.00%
Profit Margin48.68%
P/E Ratio12.4
ROE11.93%
ROA6.26%
Debt/Equity119.31
P/B Ratio1.4
Op. Cash Flow$-193504000
Free Cash Flow$98.0M
Industry P/E16.8

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI52.5
Support$22.76
Resistance$23.80
MA 20$23.31
MA 50$23.46
MA 200$22.36
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index89.86

Valuation

Fair Value$15.78
Target Price$24.90
Upside/Downside5.78%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield10.88%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.70
Volatility17.82%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.