CRVL:NASDAQCorVel Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-27 - not real-time
$53.41
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
CorVel (CRVL) is trading at $53.41, just above its 20‑day SMA of 53.14 but well below the 50‑day (55.87) and 200‑day (75.75) averages, signalling a bearish price momentum. The RSI sits near the neutral zone at 49, while the MACD histogram is positive (0.30) and the signal line is deemed bullish, suggesting a short‑term technical bounce may be possible. The stock is perched between a clear support level of 50.51 and resistance near 55.59, with volume trending upward, which could provide the liquidity needed for a modest rebound.
Fundamentally, CRVL delivers solid profitability—gross margin of 24%, operating margin 13.7%, and a strong ROE of 31%—backed by a robust cash position ($230 M) and minimal debt ($26 M). However, the valuation appears stretched: a trailing P/E of 26 far exceeds the industry average of 16, the price‑to‑book ratio is high at 7.27, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $33.9 suggests a significant discount to the current market price. The stock also exhibits high 30‑day volatility (~28.6%) and a historical max drawdown of over 60%, underscoring notable price risk despite a low beta (0.49) and a stable U.S.‑centric operating footprint.
Fundamentally, CRVL delivers solid profitability—gross margin of 24%, operating margin 13.7%, and a strong ROE of 31%—backed by a robust cash position ($230 M) and minimal debt ($26 M). However, the valuation appears stretched: a trailing P/E of 26 far exceeds the industry average of 16, the price‑to‑book ratio is high at 7.27, and the DCF‑derived fair value of $33.9 suggests a significant discount to the current market price. The stock also exhibits high 30‑day volatility (~28.6%) and a historical max drawdown of over 60%, underscoring notable price risk despite a low beta (0.49) and a stable U.S.‑centric operating footprint.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Price hovering just above 20‑day SMA with bullish MACD histogram
- Support level at $50.51 offering downside protection
- Increasing volume indicating short‑term buying interest
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Price remains below 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs, confirming bearish trend
- Valuation metrics (P/E 26 vs industry 16, DCF fair value $33.9) signal overvaluation
- High volatility and historical drawdown elevate price risk
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong cash flow generation and high ROE (31%) support sustainable earnings
- Low debt and ample cash cushion reduce financial risk
- Secular demand for claims‑management and AI‑driven health‑cost solutions provide growth runway
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth3.40%
Profit Margin11.23%
P/E Ratio26.2
ROE31.26%
ROA14.44%
Debt/Equity6.91
P/B Ratio7.3
Op. Cash Flow$149.1M
Free Cash Flow$98.3M
Industry P/E16.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI49.1
Support$50.51
Resistance$55.59
MA 20$53.14
MA 50$55.87
MA 200$75.75
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.43
Valuation
Fair Value$33.90
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.49
Volatility28.66%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.