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CL:NYMEXCrude Oil Futures Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-02 - not real-time

$95.01

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Colgate‑Palmolive (CL) is trading at $95.01, just below its calculated resistance of $95.17 and comfortably above the 20‑day SMA of $90.23, indicating strong upward momentum. The RSI of 66 and a bullish MACD histogram (+0.36) reinforce a continued bullish bias, while the 30‑day volatility of 26.8% suggests ample price movement opportunities. Technicals are supported by a stable volume trend and a beta of –0.33, implying limited correlation with broader market swings, and the Fear & Greed Index at 91.23 (Extreme Greed) reflects optimistic market sentiment.
Fundamentally, Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations, driven by 8.4% revenue growth and robust sales in emerging markets, offset by a $300 million cost impact from Middle‑East tensions. The dividend yield of 2.29% and forward PE of 23.5 provide defensive appeal, but elevated geopolitical risk and cost‑inflation pressures warrant caution as the price approaches its resistance ceiling.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Bullish technical indicators (RSI 66, MACD bullish)
  • Strong Q1 earnings and emerging market momentum
  • Price positioned near but below resistance, offering upside

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Potential pull‑back at resistance level
  • Ongoing cost inflation and geopolitical cost hit
  • Stable dividend yield and defensive sector positioning

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Resilient consumer staples business with dividend income
  • Long‑term growth prospects in emerging markets
  • Defensive nature and low correlation to equity market volatility

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price95.005
Futures CurveContango
Inventory LevelLow
Supply/Demand RegimeTight
USD SensitivityMedium
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityHigh

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI66.1
Support$84.30
Resistance$95.17
MA 20$90.23
MA 50$88.64
MA 200$84.77
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.23

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.33
Volatility26.78%
Sector RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.