ASELS:BISTASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET FUTURES Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
TRY 330.00
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
ASELSAN is trading at 330 TRY, comfortably above its 20‑day (317) and 50‑day (301) simple moving averages and well above the 200‑day average of 212, confirming a strong bullish bias. The MACD line (10.60) sits just above its signal (10.44) and the histogram is positive, while the RSI of 56 indicates the stock is not yet overbought. Support sits at 292.5 TRY and resistance at 350 TRY, giving the price room to rally toward the upper band of its 52‑week range. Volume is decreasing and 30‑day volatility is high at nearly 50%, suggesting price swings may intensify despite the current bullish momentum. The market sentiment index reads “Extreme Greed” (76.6), reinforcing short‑term optimism.
Valuation remains premium: trailing P/E is 50.4 versus forward P/E 16.6, and price‑to‑book is 6.0, while the dividend yield of 7% provides some income cushion. Beta is modest (≈0.87), but the max drawdown of –19.7% signals notable downside risk. No material news items were identified, so the outlook relies primarily on technical strength and the company’s defensive‑sector fundamentals.
Valuation remains premium: trailing P/E is 50.4 versus forward P/E 16.6, and price‑to‑book is 6.0, while the dividend yield of 7% provides some income cushion. Beta is modest (≈0.87), but the max drawdown of –19.7% signals notable downside risk. No material news items were identified, so the outlook relies primarily on technical strength and the company’s defensive‑sector fundamentals.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical setup (price above SMA20/50, bullish MACD)
- Decreasing volume and high near‑term volatility
- Support level at 292.5 TRY providing downside buffer
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained bullish trend with price approaching resistance
- Strong dividend yield (7%) enhancing total return
- Forward P/E compression indicating earnings improvement
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Premium valuation (high trailing P/E, price‑to‑book)
- Exposure to Turkish macro‑economic and currency risk
- Defense sector’s long‑run demand but geopolitical volatility
Key Metrics & Analysis
Commodity Metrics
Spot Price330
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelLow
Supply/Demand RegimeBalanced
USD SensitivityMedium
Rates SensitivityLow
Geopolitical SensitivityHigh
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI56.8
SupportTRY 292.50
ResistanceTRY 350.00
MA 20TRY 317.04
MA 50TRY 301.10
MA 200TRY 212.56
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index76.63
Risk Assessment
Beta0.01
Volatility49.84%
Sector RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.