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ALINMA:NASDAQDUBAIAlinma Bank Futures Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

SAR 10.36

Latest Price

3/10Risk

Risk Level: Low

Executive Summary

The fund is trading just above its identified support of 10.30 SAR and below the 20‑day SMA (10.41), suggesting limited upside momentum. Technical indicators show a neutral trend with the RSI at 43, while the MACD has turned bearish (histogram –0.005), reinforcing a short‑term cautionary stance.
Volume is on an upward trajectory despite modest absolute levels, and volatility remains low at around 4% over the past month, indicating a relatively stable price environment. The ultra‑low beta (0.01) and a “Greed” sentiment reading of 72.9 on the Fear‑Greed Index point to market optimism that is not strongly tied to broader equity movements.
Recent material news confirms dividend payouts for H2 2025, providing an additional income component that enhances the fund’s appeal to yield‑focused investors while the short‑maturity profile limits interest‑rate exposure.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price hovering near technical support
  • Bearish MACD divergence
  • Rising trading volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Short‑maturity government sukuk stability
  • Low volatility and near‑zero beta
  • Positive market sentiment (Greed index)

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Strong sovereign backing
  • Limited upside due to flat yield curve
  • Consistent dividend distribution

Key Metrics & Analysis

Commodity Metrics

Spot Price10.36
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelLow
Supply/Demand RegimeBalanced
USD SensitivityLow
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityMedium

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI43.5
SupportSAR 10.30
ResistanceSAR 10.48
MA 20SAR 10.41
MA 50SAR 10.36
MA 200SAR 10.45
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Risk Assessment

Beta0.01
Volatility4.02%
Sector RiskLow
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.