ZAL:XETRZalando SE Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-25 - not real-time
€21.72
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Zalando SE (ZAL.DE) is trading at €21.72, sitting just above its 20‑day (≈€20.38) and 50‑day (≈€21.40) moving averages but below the 200‑day SMA (≈€23.30), indicating short‑term momentum amid a longer‑term bearish backdrop. The MACD histogram is positive and the signal line is bullish, while the RSI at 60 suggests the stock is not yet overbought. Support sits at €18.61 and resistance at €22.43, with volume trending downwards and 30‑day volatility elevated at ~32%.
Fundamentally, Q1 FY2026 showed revenue up ~24% YoY and adjusted EBIT climbing 39%, yet operating margin remains negative (‑2.66%) and profit margin is under 1%. The DCF fair‑value estimate of €154.68 implies roughly a 65% upside, and analysts (24) have a median target of €35 with a “buy” consensus. Forward PE has collapsed to ~11.7, highlighting earnings acceleration despite a current PE of 26.5.
Fundamentally, Q1 FY2026 showed revenue up ~24% YoY and adjusted EBIT climbing 39%, yet operating margin remains negative (‑2.66%) and profit margin is under 1%. The DCF fair‑value estimate of €154.68 implies roughly a 65% upside, and analysts (24) have a median target of €35 with a “buy” consensus. Forward PE has collapsed to ~11.7, highlighting earnings acceleration despite a current PE of 26.5.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD crossover despite bearish longer‑term trend
- Robust 24% YoY revenue growth and 39% EBIT increase in Q1
- Price near resistance with upside to analyst median target
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Sustained top‑line momentum and improving profitability metrics
- Forward PE compression to ~11.7 indicating earnings acceleration
- Consensus buy rating from 24 analysts with median target €35
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- DCF valuation suggesting ~65% upside versus current price
- Potential market‑share gains in European e‑commerce as online fashion demand grows
- Long‑term trend toward higher operating cash flow and free cash flow generation
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth23.80%
Profit Margin0.91%
P/E Ratio26.5
ROE4.28%
ROA2.44%
Debt/Equity52.18
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow€831.1M
Free Cash Flow€1.2B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI60.5
Support€18.61
Resistance€22.43
MA 20€20.38
MA 50€21.40
MA 200€23.30
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index91.8
Valuation
Fair Value€154.68
Target Price€35.83
Upside/Downside64.98%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta0.42
Volatility31.86%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.