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XOM:NYSEExxon Mobil Corporation Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time

$151.42

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is trading just above its 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, with a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI hovering around the midpoint, suggesting short‑term momentum remains intact. However, the stock’s 30‑day volatility is elevated and the beta is unusually negative, indicating heightened price swings that are not closely tied to the broader market. Fundamentally, the company delivers solid cash flow and a 2.7% dividend yield, but the DCF fair‑value estimate of roughly $31 is far below the current price near $151, flagging a substantial overvaluation gap. Recent headlines point to a potential expansion into Venezuelan oil assets and mixed proxy advisory sentiment, while hedge‑fund surveys highlight strong bullish bias.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price is aligned with short‑term moving averages
  • Bullish MACD but limited upside before hitting resistance
  • Elevated short‑term volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
  • Strong dividend yield supporting total return
  • Uncertainty around Venezuelan acquisition and proxy votes

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust free cash flow generation and dividend sustainability
  • Potential upside from strategic asset expansion and low‑carbon initiatives
  • Long‑term energy demand resilience despite regulatory headwinds

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth2.60%
Profit Margin7.76%
P/E Ratio25.5
ROE9.87%
ROA4.22%
Debt/Equity18.26
P/B Ratio2.4
Op. Cash Flow$47.7B
Free Cash Flow$11.6B
Industry P/E21.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI49.9
Support$144.71
Resistance$163.68
MA 20$152.31
MA 50$152.28
MA 200$133.83
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index83.38

Valuation

Fair Value$31.62
Target Price$169.91
Upside/Downside12.21%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.74%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.36
Volatility29.80%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.