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WM:NYSEWaste Management, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-07-06 - not real-time

$230.40

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Waste Management’s share price is hovering just below the recent resistance level and modestly above the short‑term moving averages, while the RSI sits in the upper half of its range, indicating lingering momentum but no clear overbought signal. The MACD histogram remains firmly positive, pointing to bullish momentum, and an increasing volume trend suggests growing investor interest. However, the broader trend direction is flagged as bearish, and the beta is negative, implying the stock moves independently of the market and may be more vulnerable to company‑specific factors. Valuation metrics show a price‑to‑earnings multiple that exceeds the industry average and a discounted‑cash‑flow fair value far below the current market price, signaling a pronounced premium. The dividend yield is modest, with a payout ratio comfortably below half, supporting dividend sustainability. The fear‑and‑greed index is in the extreme greed zone, hinting that sentiment may be inflating the price. Together, these factors paint a picture of a fundamentally solid business with strong cash generation and defensive characteristics, but currently priced at a level that could be vulnerable to a correction.
In the short term, investors should be cautious given the bearish technical backdrop and the sizable valuation gap. Over the medium horizon, the upcoming earnings release and steady cash flow provide a basis for a hold stance. Over the long run, the company’s entrenched market position, resilient margins, and sustainable dividend make it an attractive component of a defensive, income‑oriented portfolio.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • bearish technical trend despite bullish MACD
  • price significantly above discounted cash flow fair value
  • extreme greed sentiment may prompt a pullback

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • steady operating cash flow and healthy dividend coverage
  • upcoming earnings could clarify margin trajectory
  • valuation premium remains but market may price in growth

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • defensive waste‑management franchise with high barriers to entry
  • sustainable dividend supported by solid free cash flow
  • long‑term inflation‑linked pricing and renewable energy assets

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth3.50%
Profit Margin10.99%
P/E Ratio33.3
ROE29.94%
ROA6.60%
Debt/Equity228.41
P/B Ratio9.2
Op. Cash Flow$6.3B
Free Cash Flow$2.1B
Industry P/E31.9

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI64.2
Support$212.22
Resistance$230.65
MA 20$220.50
MA 50$220.75
MA 200$221.47
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index92.18

Valuation

Fair Value$24.94
Target Price$256.04
Upside/Downside11.13%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Dividend Yield1.54%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.29
Volatility22.17%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.