WHC:ASXWhitehaven Coal Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
A$9.35
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Whitehaven Coal is trading at AUD 9.35, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 8.36 and the 200‑day SMA of 7.14, while the MACD remains bullish and the RSI sits at 66, indicating continued upward momentum despite a recent dip on weaker coal prices.
Fundamentally, the company faces a 27.7% revenue decline and thin margins, but it generates strong free cash flow, carries modest debt (debt‑to‑equity 34%), and offers a sustainable dividend (0.86% yield, 19% payout). With a PE of 11.8 versus the industry average of 22, a price‑to‑book of 1.3, and a DCF‑derived fair value near AUD 27, the stock appears undervalued, though it is subject to high 30‑day volatility (≈44%) and sector‑specific regulatory headwinds.
Fundamentally, the company faces a 27.7% revenue decline and thin margins, but it generates strong free cash flow, carries modest debt (debt‑to‑equity 34%), and offers a sustainable dividend (0.86% yield, 19% payout). With a PE of 11.8 versus the industry average of 22, a price‑to‑book of 1.3, and a DCF‑derived fair value near AUD 27, the stock appears undervalued, though it is subject to high 30‑day volatility (≈44%) and sector‑specific regulatory headwinds.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish technical setup (MACD, SMA crossover)
- Recent earnings miss and weaker coal price pressure
- Proximity to resistance at AUD 9.5
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Valuation gap versus peers (low PE, low P/B)
- Sustained dividend and solid cash generation
- Ongoing sector volatility and regulatory uncertainty
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Significant upside potential relative to DCF fair value
- Stable balance sheet with manageable debt
- Long‑term commodity demand in key export markets despite transition risks
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-27.70%
Profit Margin12.66%
P/E Ratio11.8
ROE11.33%
ROA0.19%
Debt/Equity34.20
P/B Ratio1.3
Op. Cash FlowA$390.0M
Free Cash FlowA$1.7B
Industry P/E22.2
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI65.9
SupportA$7.66
ResistanceA$9.50
MA 20A$8.36
MA 50A$8.57
MA 200A$7.14
MACDBullish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair ValueA$27.26
Target PriceA$8.46
Upside/Downside-9.47%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.86%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.28
Volatility43.91%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.