WERN:NASDAQWerner Enterprises, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-07-22 - not real-time
$45.82
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Werner Enterprises (WERN) is trading at $45.82, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of 44.12 and 50‑day SMA of 42.05, and just shy of the 52‑week high of 47.49. The MACD line (1.27) sits above its signal (1.11) and the RSI is at 60, indicating bullish momentum with modest over‑bought pressure. The price is anchored by a support level near $40.73 and faces resistance around $47.49, suggesting limited short‑term upside.
From a valuation perspective, the DCF‑derived fair value of $46.56 implies only a ~1.6% upside, yet the forward price‑to‑sales multiple of 0.70× is dramatically below the industry average of 2.66× and the forward P/E of 21.5 is under the sector’s 30.7×, marking the stock as fundamentally undervalued. However, the company posted a negative profit margin (‑0.28%), a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈75.5), and a dividend payout ratio of 136%, casting doubt on earnings durability and dividend sustainability.
Risk factors are heightened by a 30‑day volatility of 35.8% and a beta near 1.0, reflecting sensitivity to broader market swings. The trucking industry’s cyclical nature, exposure to fuel‑price and emissions regulations, and geographic operations across North America add medium‑level sector, regulatory, and geographic risk, while currency risk remains low and liquidity is solid given a market cap of ~$2.7 B and stable trading volumes.
From a valuation perspective, the DCF‑derived fair value of $46.56 implies only a ~1.6% upside, yet the forward price‑to‑sales multiple of 0.70× is dramatically below the industry average of 2.66× and the forward P/E of 21.5 is under the sector’s 30.7×, marking the stock as fundamentally undervalued. However, the company posted a negative profit margin (‑0.28%), a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈75.5), and a dividend payout ratio of 136%, casting doubt on earnings durability and dividend sustainability.
Risk factors are heightened by a 30‑day volatility of 35.8% and a beta near 1.0, reflecting sensitivity to broader market swings. The trucking industry’s cyclical nature, exposure to fuel‑price and emissions regulations, and geographic operations across North America add medium‑level sector, regulatory, and geographic risk, while currency risk remains low and liquidity is solid given a market cap of ~$2.7 B and stable trading volumes.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD and RSI above 50
- Price near resistance with limited upside
- High short‑term volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Undervalued relative to peers (low forward P/S)
- Negative profit margin and high leverage
- Unsustainable dividend payout ratio
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- DCF fair value close to current price
- Revenue growth of ~13% but thin margins
- Cyclical industry exposure and debt load
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth13.60%
Profit Margin-0.28%
P/E Ratio21.5
ROE-1.21%
ROA1.41%
Debt/Equity75.55
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow$235.9M
Free Cash Flow$-18560876
Industry P/E30.7
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI60.1
Support$40.73
Resistance$47.49
MA 20$44.12
MA 50$42.05
MA 200$33.43
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.36
Valuation
Fair Value$46.56
Target Price$42.53
Upside/Downside-7.17%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield1.18%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.03
Volatility35.78%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.