VST:NYSEVistra Corp. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-18 - not real-time
$163.43
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Vistra Corp. (VST) is trading at $163.43, roughly 10% below its 20‑day SMA ($154.00) and just under the 50‑day SMA ($154.15), indicating short‑term price weakness despite a bullish MACD histogram (+1.44) and an RSI of 60, which suggests lingering upside momentum. The company boasts a 43% YoY revenue growth rate, a solid operating margin of 26.6%, and a forward EPS of $10.99, driving a forward P/E of ~15 versus a trailing P/E of 27.3, well above the industry average of 20.5.
Recent material news highlights Vistra’s selection as the preferred power provider for a $10 billion KKR‑backed AI infrastructure venture, underscoring growing demand from data centers and hyperscalers, while analysts cite strong cash flow and long‑term PPAs as catalysts. However, the stock faces high volatility (51% 30‑day) and a beta of 1.59, coupled with a massive debt‑to‑equity ratio (>350), which tempers the upside potential despite a 36% upside/downside estimate.
Recent material news highlights Vistra’s selection as the preferred power provider for a $10 billion KKR‑backed AI infrastructure venture, underscoring growing demand from data centers and hyperscalers, while analysts cite strong cash flow and long‑term PPAs as catalysts. However, the stock faces high volatility (51% 30‑day) and a beta of 1.59, coupled with a massive debt‑to‑equity ratio (>350), which tempers the upside potential despite a 36% upside/downside estimate.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish trend direction despite bullish MACD
- High short‑term volatility and elevated beta
- Price near support level with limited upside in next weeks
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and operating margins
- Forward P/E compression to ~15 indicating value upside
- AI‑driven power demand from KKR‑backed infrastructure partnership
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Diversified generation mix with nuclear and renewable assets
- Long‑term PPAs with hyperscalers securing stable cash flow
- Upside potential of ~36% versus downside risk, supported by analyst strong‑buy consensus
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth43.40%
Profit Margin11.53%
P/E Ratio27.3
ROE42.90%
ROA6.02%
Debt/Equity355.19
P/B Ratio21.1
Op. Cash Flow$4.7B
Free Cash Flow$476.9M
Industry P/E20.5
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI60.5
Support$137.91
Resistance$170.32
MA 20$154.00
MA 50$154.15
MA 200$170.27
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index91.32
Valuation
Target Price$223.00
Upside/Downside36.45%
GradeFair
TypeBlend
Risk Assessment
Beta1.59
Volatility51.43%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.