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VRTX:NASDAQVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time

$460.87

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) trades at $460.87, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $474.54 and 50‑day SMA of $467.48, indicating short‑term price weakness. The RSI of 44.8 sits just below the neutral 50 mark and the MACD histogram is negative, reinforcing a bearish momentum despite a bullish trend direction flag. Volatility is elevated at 32.7% over the past 30 days, yet the stock’s beta of 0.49 suggests limited market‑wide swings. The DCF fair value of $227.78 is far below the current price, implying the market is pricing in significant growth expectations, and the model shows a modest 16% upside/downside buffer.
Fundamentally, VRTX delivered a 9.5% YoY revenue increase to $12.0 B with a strong gross margin of 53.7% and operating margin of 39.6%. The company boasts a robust cash pile of $6.6 B against $2.0 B of debt, yielding a low leverage profile. Recent positive interim data from the Phase 3 RAINIER trial for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy adds a compelling pipeline catalyst. Analysts rate the stock as a “Buy” with a median target of $548, suggesting roughly a 19% upside from current levels. Overall, the blend of solid earnings, high‑margin biotech positioning, and encouraging clinical progress supports a favorable medium‑ to long‑term outlook, while short‑term technical signals remain cautious.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD histogram and price below 20‑day SMA
  • Decreasing volume trend
  • Proximity to support level at $450.67

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Positive Phase 3 RAINIER trial data
  • Revenue growth of 9.5% YoY and strong profit margins
  • Analyst consensus buy with median target price of $548

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Robust cash position and low debt-to-equity
  • High ROE (22.5%) and consistent free cash flow generation
  • Diversified pipeline across CF, renal, SCD, and pain therapeutics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth9.50%
Profit Margin32.94%
P/E Ratio30.1
ROE22.54%
ROA12.16%
Debt/Equity10.91
P/B Ratio6.3
Op. Cash Flow$3.6B
Free Cash Flow$2.6B
Industry P/E25.4

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI44.8
Support$450.67
Resistance$503.88
MA 20$474.54
MA 50$467.48
MA 200$437.24
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$227.78
Target Price$535.56
Upside/Downside16.21%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.49
Volatility32.71%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.