VRTX:NASDAQVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-09 - not real-time
$460.87
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) trades at $460.87, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $474.54 and 50‑day SMA of $467.48, indicating short‑term price weakness. The RSI of 44.8 sits just below the neutral 50 mark and the MACD histogram is negative, reinforcing a bearish momentum despite a bullish trend direction flag. Volatility is elevated at 32.7% over the past 30 days, yet the stock’s beta of 0.49 suggests limited market‑wide swings. The DCF fair value of $227.78 is far below the current price, implying the market is pricing in significant growth expectations, and the model shows a modest 16% upside/downside buffer.
Fundamentally, VRTX delivered a 9.5% YoY revenue increase to $12.0 B with a strong gross margin of 53.7% and operating margin of 39.6%. The company boasts a robust cash pile of $6.6 B against $2.0 B of debt, yielding a low leverage profile. Recent positive interim data from the Phase 3 RAINIER trial for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy adds a compelling pipeline catalyst. Analysts rate the stock as a “Buy” with a median target of $548, suggesting roughly a 19% upside from current levels. Overall, the blend of solid earnings, high‑margin biotech positioning, and encouraging clinical progress supports a favorable medium‑ to long‑term outlook, while short‑term technical signals remain cautious.
Fundamentally, VRTX delivered a 9.5% YoY revenue increase to $12.0 B with a strong gross margin of 53.7% and operating margin of 39.6%. The company boasts a robust cash pile of $6.6 B against $2.0 B of debt, yielding a low leverage profile. Recent positive interim data from the Phase 3 RAINIER trial for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy adds a compelling pipeline catalyst. Analysts rate the stock as a “Buy” with a median target of $548, suggesting roughly a 19% upside from current levels. Overall, the blend of solid earnings, high‑margin biotech positioning, and encouraging clinical progress supports a favorable medium‑ to long‑term outlook, while short‑term technical signals remain cautious.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram and price below 20‑day SMA
- Decreasing volume trend
- Proximity to support level at $450.67
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Positive Phase 3 RAINIER trial data
- Revenue growth of 9.5% YoY and strong profit margins
- Analyst consensus buy with median target price of $548
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Robust cash position and low debt-to-equity
- High ROE (22.5%) and consistent free cash flow generation
- Diversified pipeline across CF, renal, SCD, and pain therapeutics
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth9.50%
Profit Margin32.94%
P/E Ratio30.1
ROE22.54%
ROA12.16%
Debt/Equity10.91
P/B Ratio6.3
Op. Cash Flow$3.6B
Free Cash Flow$2.6B
Industry P/E25.4
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI44.8
Support$450.67
Resistance$503.88
MA 20$474.54
MA 50$467.48
MA 200$437.24
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Fair Value$227.78
Target Price$535.56
Upside/Downside16.21%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta0.49
Volatility32.71%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.