VIPS:NYSEVipshop Holdings Limited Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-09 - not real-time
$14.46
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Vipshop (VIPS) trades at $14.46, well below its analyst median target of $20.29 and a DCF‑derived fair value, delivering an implied upside of roughly 39%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.99 and offers a dividend yield of 4.26% with a modest payout ratio (~25%), suggesting the dividend is sustainable. Technicals show the price sits just above the identified support at $14.07 but remains under resistance near $15.87; the 20‑day SMA (14.64) is below the 50‑day SMA (15.33), indicating short‑term bearish momentum, yet the MACD histogram is positive and RSI sits near 44, hinting at potential stabilization. Volatility is elevated at ~30% over the past 30 days, while beta (~0.96) suggests market‑aligned risk. Recent material news confirms routine filing of the 2025 Form 20‑F, with no new operational surprises, keeping the fundamental backdrop unchanged.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Current price markedly below target and fair‑value estimates
- Attractive dividend yield with low payout ratio
- Technical support holding and bullish MACD signal
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Projected upside to $20+ aligns with analyst consensus
- Low valuation multiples (P/E ~7, P/B ~1.15) relative to peers
- Stable cash generation supporting earnings growth and dividend
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Long‑run Chinese consumer recovery boosting e‑commerce demand
- Sustainable dividend providing income while the business scales
- Resilient balance sheet with modest debt and strong ROE (~17%)
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.30%
Profit Margin6.84%
P/E Ratio7.0
ROE17.23%
ROA6.49%
Debt/Equity14.87
P/B Ratio1.2
Op. Cash Flow$7.5B
Free Cash Flow$2.7B
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI44.0
Support$14.07
Resistance$15.87
MA 20$14.64
MA 50$15.33
MA 200$17.42
MACDBullish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index90.73
Valuation
Fair Value$122.19
Target Price$20.14
Upside/Downside39.29%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield4.26%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.96
Volatility30.83%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.