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UTEN:NASDAQUS Treasury 10 Year Note ETF Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-07 - not real-time

$43.35

Latest Price

4/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

UTEN is trading at $43.35, just above the calculated support of $43.10 and below the 20‑day SMA of $43.58, indicating limited upside in the near term. The 14‑day RSI of 43.6 and a bearish MACD histogram suggest momentum is still on the downside, while the 30‑day volatility of roughly 5.2% remains modest. With a beta of only 0.06, the fund is largely insulated from equity market swings, and its expense ratio of 0.15% is exceptionally low for an ETF. The dividend yield of 4.43% provides a solid income cushion, but the YTD return of –0.37% and a max drawdown of –3.75% highlight recent price pressure. Volume is increasing, yet current daily volume (≈14.9k) lags the 10‑day and 3‑month averages, pointing to moderate liquidity. The Fear & Greed Index at 90.93 (Extreme Greed) signals heightened market optimism, which could reverse if Treasury yields rise further. Overall, the fund’s tight tracking error (0) and zero premium/discount reinforce its fidelity to the underlying 10‑year Treasury benchmark, but the bearish technical backdrop warrants caution.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Price near support with bearish MACD and RSI
  • Rising volume but still below average, indicating limited buying pressure
  • High market greed environment could trigger a pullback

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Stable 4.43% dividend yield offers income appeal
  • Very low beta and tracking error reduce market and tracking risk
  • Expense ratio of 0.15% keeps cost drag minimal

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Government‑bond focus provides safety in diversified portfolios
  • Consistently low expense ratio and near‑zero tracking error
  • Low currency and sector concentration risks support durability

Key Metrics & Analysis

Fund Metrics

Expense Ratio0.15%
AUM$290.7M
Inception Date2022-08-08
Avg Daily Volume46,700
Premium/Discount0.00%
Tracking Error0.00%
Dividend Yield4.43%

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI43.6
Support$43.10
Resistance$43.98
MA 20$43.58
MA 50$43.77
MA 200$44.07
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93

Risk Assessment

Beta0.06
Volatility5.19%
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.