USLM:NASDAQUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-07 - not real-time
$109.28
Latest Price
7/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) is trading at $109.28, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $125.79 and the computed support level of $103.07, but still below the 52‑week high of $141.44. The RSI of 33.7 places the stock in oversold territory while the MACD remains bearish, suggesting short‑term price pressure could ease. Volatility is elevated at 62.5% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.3, indicating heightened market sensitivity. Fundamentally, the company posted $87.8 million of Q1 revenue, a modest 3.7% decline YoY, yet maintains strong gross (55%) and operating (41%) margins, a solid ROE of 22%, and a low debt‑to‑equity of 0.55. Cash balances of $383 million dwarf the $3.6 million debt load, and a modest dividend yield of 0.22% with a 5% payout ratio underscores sustainability. The DCF‑derived fair value of $39.10 is far lower than the current price, implying a substantial valuation gap. Recent material news includes the Q1 earnings release and a sizable stock‑option exercise by a board member, both of which have not yet translated into price appreciation. Overall, the stock exhibits a bullish trend direction but faces significant upside‑downside tension between technical optimism and fundamental overvaluation.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Oversold RSI indicating potential near‑term bounce
- Bearish MACD signal cautioning against rapid upside
- Price still above immediate support level
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
- Strong cash generation and low leverage
- Moderate sector cyclicality and volatility
Long Term
> 3 yearsCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Current price far exceeds DCF fair value of $39.10
- Negative revenue growth and limited growth prospects
- High volatility and beta increasing downside risk
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-3.70%
Profit Margin35.40%
P/E Ratio24.1
ROE21.91%
ROA14.79%
Debt/Equity0.55
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$157.6M
Free Cash Flow$55.4M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI33.7
Support$103.07
Resistance$140.55
MA 20$125.79
MA 50$124.79
MA 200$122.14
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93
Valuation
Fair Value$39.11
Target Price$138.00
Upside/Downside26.28%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.22%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.31
Volatility62.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
Similar Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.