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USLM:NASDAQUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-07 - not real-time

$109.28

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) is trading at $109.28, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA of $125.79 and the computed support level of $103.07, but still below the 52‑week high of $141.44. The RSI of 33.7 places the stock in oversold territory while the MACD remains bearish, suggesting short‑term price pressure could ease. Volatility is elevated at 62.5% over the past 30 days and beta exceeds 1.3, indicating heightened market sensitivity. Fundamentally, the company posted $87.8 million of Q1 revenue, a modest 3.7% decline YoY, yet maintains strong gross (55%) and operating (41%) margins, a solid ROE of 22%, and a low debt‑to‑equity of 0.55. Cash balances of $383 million dwarf the $3.6 million debt load, and a modest dividend yield of 0.22% with a 5% payout ratio underscores sustainability. The DCF‑derived fair value of $39.10 is far lower than the current price, implying a substantial valuation gap. Recent material news includes the Q1 earnings release and a sizable stock‑option exercise by a board member, both of which have not yet translated into price appreciation. Overall, the stock exhibits a bullish trend direction but faces significant upside‑downside tension between technical optimism and fundamental overvaluation.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI indicating potential near‑term bounce
  • Bearish MACD signal cautioning against rapid upside
  • Price still above immediate support level

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation gap versus DCF fair value
  • Strong cash generation and low leverage
  • Moderate sector cyclicality and volatility

Long Term

> 3 years
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Current price far exceeds DCF fair value of $39.10
  • Negative revenue growth and limited growth prospects
  • High volatility and beta increasing downside risk

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-3.70%
Profit Margin35.40%
P/E Ratio24.1
ROE21.91%
ROA14.79%
Debt/Equity0.55
P/B Ratio5.0
Op. Cash Flow$157.6M
Free Cash Flow$55.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI33.7
Support$103.07
Resistance$140.55
MA 20$125.79
MA 50$124.79
MA 200$122.14
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index90.93

Valuation

Fair Value$39.11
Target Price$138.00
Upside/Downside26.28%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield0.22%

Risk Assessment

Beta1.31
Volatility62.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.