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ULTA:NASDAQUlta Beauty, Inc. Analysis

Data as of 2026-08-29 - not real-time

$517.50

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

At $517.50, Ulta Beauty, Inc. shows no decisive moving-average alignment, leaving the trend neutral. The last 30 days have gained 7.9%. RSI sits at 49.3, which reads as neutral, and MACD momentum is bearish. Watch $493.11 as support and $566.73 as the nearer resistance level.
Valuation screens as fair, on a P/E of 18.9 with no clean sector comparison available. The average analyst target implies 20.5% above today's level. Revenue is growing at 8.9% on a 9.3% profit margin.
Risk comes out at 5 of a possible 10, a moderate reading. With 30-day volatility of 38.8%, a beta of 0.47 and a maximum drawdown of 36.2%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 96 on the fear-greed composite.
Across every horizon the signals point the same way: hold, at a conviction of 3 out of 10.

Top Market Events

Ulta Beauty’s fiscal Q2 2026 net sales increased 8.Ulta Beauty posted a clean earnings beat and raised its full year outlook, yet traders punished the stock in heavy...Investing.com -- Ulta Beauty Inc NASDAQ:ULTA posted second-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations, with...

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 555.67
  • MACD momentum is negative
  • 30-day price change of +7.9%

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 2/10

Key Factors

  • Trading below the 200-day average of 555.67
  • Analyst targets imply +20.5% versus the current price
  • MACD momentum is negative

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 3/10

Key Factors

  • Analyst targets imply +20.5% versus the current price
  • P/E ratio of 18.9
  • Return on equity of 46.1%

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth8.90%
Profit Margin9.34%
P/E Ratio18.9
ROE46.12%
ROA14.84%
Debt/Equity95.47
P/B Ratio8.2
Op. Cash Flow$1.6B
Free Cash Flow$918.4M

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI49.3
Support$493.11
Resistance$566.73
MA 20$531.06
MA 50$497.45
MA 200$555.67
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index95.66

Valuation

Fair Value$347.53
Target Price$623.54
Upside/Downside20.49%
GradeFair
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta0.47
Volatility38.75%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.