TUPRS:BISTTURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI FUTURES Analysis
Data as of 2026-09-03 - not real-time
TRY 392.25
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
The moving-average structure behind Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. is bullish at TRY 392.25, with short-term averages leading the long-term ones. Over a rolling month the price has gained 30.1%. Momentum indicators put RSI at 71.7 (overbought) with MACD reading bearish. Watch TRY 295.50 as support and TRY 417.25 as the nearer resistance level.
The futures curve is in flat, with the curve offering little signal either way. Supply and demand read as tight.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 6 — elevated. With 30-day volatility of 47.8%, a beta of 0.13 and a maximum drawdown of 21.3%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 3/10 conviction.
The futures curve is in flat, with the curve offering little signal either way. Supply and demand read as tight.
On a 1-10 scale the risk profile lands at 6 — elevated. With 30-day volatility of 47.8%, a beta of 0.13 and a maximum drawdown of 21.3%, position sizing matters here. The wider market backdrop reads extreme greed at 94 on the fear-greed composite.
All three time horizons resolve to hold, carrying 3/10 conviction.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 71.7 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 249.19
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
- RSI at 71.7 signals overbought conditions
- Trading above the 200-day average of 249.19
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 3/10
Key Factors
- 30-day volatility of 47.8%
- Maximum drawdown of 21.3%
- Short-term moving averages stacked above long-term ones
Key Metrics & Analysis
Commodity Metrics
Spot Price392.25
Futures CurveFlat
Inventory LevelMedium
Supply/Demand RegimeTight
USD SensitivityMedium
Rates SensitivityMedium
Geopolitical SensitivityMedium
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI71.7
SupportTRY 295.50
ResistanceTRY 417.25
MA 20TRY 367.93
MA 50TRY 308.20
MA 200TRY 249.19
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index94.29
Risk Assessment
Beta0.13
Volatility47.79%
Sector RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.