TSEM:TASETower Semiconductor Ltd Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-13 - not real-time
$126.91
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Tower Semiconductor delivered a solid Q4 2025 earnings beat, posting EPS of $0.78 versus consensus $0.67 and driving revenue up 14% year‑over‑year to $1.57 bn. The company’s forward earnings guidance lifts the forward PE to roughly 26×, yet the current market price of $126 sits well above the DCF‑derived fair value of $68, implying a significant valuation premium. Analyst price targets averaging $161 suggest market optimism, but the gap between price and intrinsic value remains a red flag.
On the technical side, the stock trades just above its 20‑day SMA (~$124) but below the 50‑day SMA (~$127), while the MACD has turned bearish and the RSI hovers around the neutral 52 level. Volume is rising, but volatility is high (≈79% 30‑day) and beta exceeds 1.7, underscoring a risk‑on environment. The recent partnership announcement with Nvidia has added short‑term momentum, yet the broader semiconductor sector remains cyclical and sensitive to macro‑economic shifts.
On the technical side, the stock trades just above its 20‑day SMA (~$124) but below the 50‑day SMA (~$127), while the MACD has turned bearish and the RSI hovers around the neutral 52 level. Volume is rising, but volatility is high (≈79% 30‑day) and beta exceeds 1.7, underscoring a risk‑on environment. The recent partnership announcement with Nvidia has added short‑term momentum, yet the broader semiconductor sector remains cyclical and sensitive to macro‑economic shifts.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Q4 earnings beat and Nvidia partnership boost momentum
- Bearish MACD and high volatility signal caution
- Current price still above intrinsic value
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Strong revenue growth and improving forward earnings outlook
- Analyst price targets indicating upside potential
- Increasing trading volume supporting liquidity
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Cyclical nature of the semiconductor foundry business
- Persistent overvaluation relative to DCF fair value
- Strategic positioning in high‑value analog niches and partnerships
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth13.70%
Profit Margin14.08%
P/E Ratio65.4
ROE7.89%
ROA3.79%
Debt/Equity5.56
P/B Ratio4.9
Op. Cash Flow$395.5M
Free Cash Flow$-1194750
Industry P/E33.8
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI52.2
Support$108.43
Resistance$138.80
MA 20$124.17
MA 50$127.01
MA 200$84.18
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index73.25
Valuation
Fair Value$68.72
Target Price$159.29
Upside/Downside25.51%
GradeOvervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.73
Volatility79.12%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.