TROW:NASDAQT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$89.14
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
T. Rowe Price is trading below its 20‑day simple moving average, with the 20‑day SMA also under the 50‑day SMA, indicating a short‑term downtrend. RSI sits in the low‑30s, suggesting oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram is negative, reinforcing bearish momentum. The stock is hovering near a technical support level around the mid‑80s and faces resistance near the high‑90s, with a 30‑day volatility exceeding 30% and a beta above one, pointing to heightened price swings. Fundamentally, the company trades at a price‑to‑earnings multiple well below the industry average, and its dividend yield tops 5%, supported by a payout ratio below 60% and strong cash generation. However, the latest earnings release missed consensus expectations, tempering near‑term sentiment despite a modest dividend increase announced by the board. AUM growth remains robust, with assets under management up more than 10% year‑to‑date, providing a solid earnings runway. The discounted cash‑flow model values the shares near $180, implying a sizable upside relative to the current market price. Together, the technical weakness, earnings miss, and strong valuation gap create a mixed picture: short‑term pressure but long‑term upside potential.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Recent earnings miss
- Bearish technical indicators
- Attractive dividend yield
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
- Strong AUM growth supporting earnings
- Sustainable dividend with modest increase
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Fundamental undervaluation relative to peers
- Consistent cash flow generation
- Long‑term dividend stability and growth
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth6.00%
Profit Margin28.53%
P/E Ratio9.6
ROE18.79%
ROA10.65%
Debt/Equity3.89
P/B Ratio1.8
Op. Cash Flow$1.8B
Free Cash Flow$2.0B
Industry P/E17.3
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI31.5
Support$86.94
Resistance$97.67
MA 20$93.63
MA 50$99.97
MA 200$101.81
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair Value$177.64
Target Price$101.25
Upside/Downside13.59%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield5.74%
Risk Assessment
Beta1.21
Volatility31.61%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskLow
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.