TOU:TSX

Tourmaline Oil is trading at C$62.77, just above the computed support of C$60.58 and below the resistance of C$67.65. The price sits marginally under the 20‑day SMA (C$62.89) but remains above the 50‑day (C$61.80) and 200‑day (C$61.65) averages, signalling a longer‑term bullish bias. Momentum indicators are mixed – RSI sits at 49.6, essentially neutral, while the MACD histogram is slightly negative, hinting at short‑term pressure despite an overall bullish trend and increasing volume. Fundamentally, the company posted strong revenue growth of 19% and a record Q4 production of 659,204 boepd, with January 2026 averaging over 685,000 boepd. A corporate‑record 2P reserve addition of 829 million boe and a $765 million asset sale bolster the balance sheet, yet leverage remains high with a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 12.25 and a dividend payout ratio of 294%, raising concerns about dividend sustainability. Forward earnings are projected to surge – trailing EPS is C$0.68 versus a forward EPS of C$4.83, compressing the forward P/E to about 13 versus a trailing P/E of 92, well above the industry average of 20. Analyst consensus is a “Buy” with a median target of C$72, implying roughly 14% upside, while the DCF model suggests a fair value near C$180, indicating significant long‑term upside potential if cash flow improves and leverage is reduced.