AMCR:NYSE

Amcor plc

Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time

$42.10

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Amcor plc is trading below its short‑term moving average and shows oversold momentum, as reflected by a low RSI and a bearish MACD histogram. The price is hovering near a key support level, while the broader trend remains bullish, suggesting a potential short‑term bounce.
The company offers an attractive dividend yield, but the payout ratio is above 100%, raising concerns about sustainability. High leverage, with debt far exceeding equity, combined with modest profitability margins, adds financial risk. Recent analyst upgrades and a median price target well above the current level indicate perceived upside, yet the discounted cash‑flow model points to significant overvaluation. Investors should weigh the strong cash flow generation against the debt load, dividend sustainability, and elevated volatility before deciding.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price near technical support with oversold momentum
  • stable trading volume providing liquidity
  • potential short‑term rebound despite bearish MACD

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • analyst price targets indicating upside
  • forward earnings growth outpacing current valuation
  • strong cash flow generation supporting operations

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • high dividend payout ratio may become unsustainable
  • elevated debt level could constrain future investments
  • ongoing regulatory pressure on packaging materials

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth68.10%
Profit Margin3.04%
P/E Ratio31.7
ROE7.73%
ROA3.91%
Debt/Equity138.73
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.6B
Free Cash Flow$446.2M

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI28.6
Support$41.14
Resistance$50.94
MA 20$47.82
MA 50$45.37
MA 200$43.97
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.91

Valuation

Fair Value$4.21
Target Price$53.49
Upside/Downside27.06%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield6.15%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.51
Volatility37.48%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.