AMCR:NYSE
Amcor plc
Data as of 2026-03-11 - not real-time
$42.10
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Amcor plc is trading below its short‑term moving average and shows oversold momentum, as reflected by a low RSI and a bearish MACD histogram. The price is hovering near a key support level, while the broader trend remains bullish, suggesting a potential short‑term bounce.
The company offers an attractive dividend yield, but the payout ratio is above 100%, raising concerns about sustainability. High leverage, with debt far exceeding equity, combined with modest profitability margins, adds financial risk. Recent analyst upgrades and a median price target well above the current level indicate perceived upside, yet the discounted cash‑flow model points to significant overvaluation. Investors should weigh the strong cash flow generation against the debt load, dividend sustainability, and elevated volatility before deciding.
The company offers an attractive dividend yield, but the payout ratio is above 100%, raising concerns about sustainability. High leverage, with debt far exceeding equity, combined with modest profitability margins, adds financial risk. Recent analyst upgrades and a median price target well above the current level indicate perceived upside, yet the discounted cash‑flow model points to significant overvaluation. Investors should weigh the strong cash flow generation against the debt load, dividend sustainability, and elevated volatility before deciding.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- price near technical support with oversold momentum
- stable trading volume providing liquidity
- potential short‑term rebound despite bearish MACD
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- analyst price targets indicating upside
- forward earnings growth outpacing current valuation
- strong cash flow generation supporting operations
Long Term
> 3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- high dividend payout ratio may become unsustainable
- elevated debt level could constrain future investments
- ongoing regulatory pressure on packaging materials
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth68.10%
Profit Margin3.04%
P/E Ratio31.7
ROE7.73%
ROA3.91%
Debt/Equity138.73
P/B Ratio1.7
Op. Cash Flow$1.6B
Free Cash Flow$446.2M
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI28.6
Support$41.14
Resistance$50.94
MA 20$47.82
MA 50$45.37
MA 200$43.97
MACDBearish
VolumeStable
Fear & Greed Index76.91
Valuation
Fair Value$4.21
Target Price$53.49
Upside/Downside27.06%
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield6.15%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.51
Volatility37.48%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.