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TOASO:BISTTofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S. Analysis

Data as of 2026-05-29 - not real-time

TRY 296.00

Latest Price

7/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Tofas trades at a price of 296 TRY, comfortably above its 20‑day SMA (301.4) but below the 50‑day SMA (291.7), indicating a mixed short‑term signal. The MACD histogram is negative and the signal line is bearish, while volume is on a downtrend, suggesting caution near the identified support at 275 TRY. However, the broader trend remains bullish, with the 200‑day SMA well below the current price and a 30‑day volatility of over 44%, reflecting a highly active market. Valuation metrics are attractive: a trailing PE of 12.8x, forward PE of 9.3x, and a price‑to‑sales ratio of 0.37x imply the stock is undervalued relative to its peers. The dividend yield stands out at 6.8% with a payout ratio near 87%, but negative operating and free cash flow raise questions about sustainability. With an upside potential of roughly 35% based on analyst targets (mean 401 TRY, median 415 TRY), the medium‑term outlook is compelling despite the high debt‑to‑equity ratio (>117%) and modest profitability margins.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 5/10

Key Factors

  • Bearish MACD crossover and negative histogram
  • Decreasing trading volume indicating waning momentum
  • Price approaching the identified support level at 275 TRY

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Significant upside potential (~35%) based on analyst price targets
  • Attractive valuation multiples (PE 12.8x, forward PE 9.3x)
  • High dividend yield of 6.8% enhancing total return

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Diversified brand portfolio and export capabilities
  • Forward EPS growth (31.71 TRY vs trailing 23.06 TRY)
  • Need for debt reduction and cash‑flow improvement to sustain dividends

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth255.40%
Profit Margin2.90%
P/E Ratio12.8
ROE22.18%
ROA2.07%
Debt/Equity117.65
P/B Ratio2.5
Op. Cash FlowTRY-5647157248
Free Cash FlowTRY-38566187008

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI49.0
SupportTRY 275.00
ResistanceTRY 323.75
MA 20TRY 301.43
MA 50TRY 291.72
MA 200TRY 273.45
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.88

Valuation

Target PriceTRY 401.37
Upside/Downside35.60%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield6.76%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.28
Volatility44.54%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskHigh
Currency RiskHigh
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.